Monday, August 16, 2010

Returning experience

While we continue to count down to the beginning of the glorious college football season, I try to come up with new ways to look at old information. By taking a different approach on a certain statistic, you can discover more ways to see how strong (or weak) a team will be.

The offensive line is not a position of glory. It's frequently overlooked and rarely considered when people look at a team's strengths and weaknesses. The difference between a strong offensive line and a weak offensive line could be the difference between a BCS Bowl and the Toilet Bowl.

Here's a list of the teams returning all five offensive linemen from last year's team as well as their starting quarterbacks:
  • Ball State - Sophomore QB Kelly Page is back from last year's mildly successful 2009 campaign. Though he suffered a broken thumb and had to miss the last five games of the season, he should be ready to lead the Cardinals to more wins this season.
  • Colorado - QB Tyler Hansen took the reins from coach's son Cody Hawkins last year after the Buffaloes started off 1-3. Hansen was efficient but really could have used RB Darrell Scott this season. Scott transferred to South Florida for more playing time.
  • Florida State - QB Christian Ponder is a familiar face to ACC fans. He's the team's starting quarterback for the third year in a row, and hopes to rebound from last year's season-ending shoulder injury that sidelined him for four games last year.
  • Fresno State - QB Ryan Colburn led the Bulldogs successfully as a junior, and should be poised for even better numbers this year. He helped guide Fresno State to an 8-5 record behind 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and if he can improve on those numbers a bit this year, the Bulldogs could have a nine-win season in them.
  • Louisiana Tech - Senior QB Ross Jenkins threw for 105 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions as a sophomore, then broke out last year with 175 yards per game, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions as a junior. At this rate, he could finish second team All-WAC -- behind Boise State's Kellen Moore.
  • Minnesota - QB Adam Weber enters his fourth year as starting quarterback for Minnesota. Though the Golden Gophers haven't had a ton of success, he's a steady, what-you-see-is-what-you-get type of player.
  • South Florida - QB BJ Daniels was one of the Big East's big playmakers last year. After Matt Grothe went down with a season-ending knee injury, Daniels stepped up to lead the team in passing and rushing. He's an exciting player to watch, and his dual-threat style of play is similar to Grothe.
  • Wisconsin - QB Scott Tolzien returns for his second full year as a starter. In 2009, he was efficient yet unspectacular in the Badgers' 10-3 season.
Considering Florida State and Wisconsin are expected to challenge for their respective conference titles, this may be a good thing to consider. And before betting against teams that will finish in the middle or at the bottom of their conferences, be careful with teams like Colorado, South Florida and Minnesota.

Another interesting statistical category is a team that returns all of its starters on the line, but a different quarterback. These teams may be worth monitoring once they play their first tough game, as they probably won't have as much chemistry as the previous category of teams:
  • Georgia
  • Kansas
  • Memphis
  • Northwestern
  • Oregon (pictured, right)
  • Rice
Oregon is the only team in this group expected to be truly competitive this year in its conference. Rice and Northwestern would be happy to finish in the middle of the pack, and Georgia, Kansas and Memphis don't have lofty expectations, either.

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