Missouri vs. Illinois preview

Here's the research I've come up with after handicapping the Missouri vs. Illinois game, which is being held in St. Louis in Week 1. I'll try to do this for a few of the Week 1 games, but it's awfully cumbersome, so I can't promise to do this every week for the games I like. I consulted several sources for this, including Phil Steele's annual magazine, Goldsheet.com (for injuries), Keepers Football for returning experience, and other sources I'll keep to myself for the time being.

Last year: Missouri 37, Illinois 9

MISSOURI
OFFENSE
Returning offensive starters: 8
Starting QB returning: Yes, Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)
Offensive injuries: WR Stricker (RS-Fr., backup, questionable), WR Jackson (Jr., WR #2, out, last year 37 rec., 458 yds., 2 TDs)
OL starts lost from 2009: 20%
RB yards lost from 2009: 3%
QB yards lost from 2009: 1%
WR yards lost from 2009: 67%
DEFENSE
Returning defensive starters: 8
Defensive injuries: LB Crane (Jr., backup, dismissed from team), S Harrison (Sr., starter, doubtful), LB Bonner (So., backup, out), LB Ebner (Jr., starter, questionable)
DL tackles lost from 2009: 30%
LB tackles lost from 2009: 35%
DB tackles lost from 2009: 2%

ILLINOIS
OFFENSE
Returning offensive starters: 5
Starting QB returning: No
Offensive injuries: QB Charest (So., backup, transferring)
OL starts lost from 2009: 40%
RB yards lost from 2009: 33%
QB yards lost from 2009: 87%
WR yards lost from 2009: 53%
DEFENSE
Returning defensive starters: 7
Defensive injuries: None
DL tackles lost from 2009: 54%
LB tackles lost from 2009: 0%
DB tackles lost from 2009: 55%

I really like Mizzou in this spot. Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert is one of the country's best, and despite losing his top three receivers from last year, he's talented enough to hopefully overcome that and make the rest of his receivers better. Besides the WRs, Mizzou returns damn near everything on offense: the top five rushers and 4 of the 5 o-linemen. Defensively, 2.5 starters return on the defensive line, as well as most of the linebacking unit, even with Ebner questionable for the opener. What I really like is that they return all four starters in the secondary, which should mean great things when facing off against Illinois' new passing game.

Illinois loses QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn, their two "stars" from last year's squad. With five returning starters, the Illini must replace their starting QB, their top two WRs, two OLs, and their starting TE. They lost 1/3 of their running game from last year without Juice, but return their top two RBs. Illinois must completely replace their passing game, and is starting a redshirt freshman at QB, and their top two returning WRs combined for 26 receptions for 341 yards and 2 TDs. This should be a HUGE red flag for bettors, as they are facing off against one of Missouri's most experienced units: the secondary. Defensively, Illinois returns seven starters, but loses half of their DL and half of their secondary from last year.

Phil Steele has Mizzou as his #2 team in the Big 12 North. PS has Illinois his #8 team in the Big Ten. I think Missouri should safely win this game. Not sure about the point spread, but this should be a safe win for the Tigers in neutral St. Louis.