Moneymakers in 2010

Here's my list of teams that burned people against the spread in 2009, but are poised for a profitable 2010 season, with a bit of reasoning to go along with each team. If you simply bet blindly on each team every week this season, you should come out on top. There's some solid evidence that points to these teams turning it around against the spread this upcoming season.

Minnesota - the Gophers return 9 starters on offense coming off a 6-7 (4-8 ATS) season last year. That means almost everybody except their top two wide receivers. This is a senior-laden group, starting with QB Adam Weber. In the backfield are four of the top five rushers from last year, including starting RB Duane Bennett, a junior. The only source of concern on offense is at wide receiver, after losing 46% of their receptions from last year. The top receiver is #3 WR DaJon McKnight, who only caught 17 passes last year but is a legitimate deep ball threat. All five of the offensive linemen return, four of whom are seniors and one is a junior. On defense is where I pause, because returning just 2 defensive starters is going to be a big reason why this team soars or flops. However, of the projected starters, seven are upperclassmen and four are sophomores. The two returning starters are senior safeties. I'm not sure that this team will win 8 games ATS, but I think at worst you're looking at a two game improvement.

Missouri - the Tigers return 16 starters, 8 on offense and 8 on defense, and are rebounding off an 8-5 (4-8 ATS) season. QB Blaine Gabbert is back, and even though Mizzou's top two WRs are not, the passing attack should be fine. The third, fourth and fifth WRs return, combining for 86 receptions last year. The Tigers also return senior RB Derrick Washington, four of five starters on the offensive line and their starting TE. On defense, Mizzou replaces two d-linemen with juniors, and has an all-senior secondary. This should be a good year for the Tigers, who I expect to be 5-0 heading to Texas A&M in mid-October. With Gabbert proving himself last year and the team returning so much on both sides of the ball, I think that a profitable year should be expected.

North Carolina - the Heels are one of my favorite teams to surprise folks this year. Coming off an 8-5 (5-6 ATS) season, their best straight up since 2001, UNC still didn't make bettors any money. This year, the Heels return 19 starters, 10 on offense and 9 on defense. Everyone returns from last year's squad that ended up in the Meineke Car Care Bowl for the second straight season, including seniors QB TJ Yates and RB Shaun Draughn. On defense, the d-line replaces two starters but also returns Robert Quinn and Marvin Austin, both projected to be high first-round draft picks in 2011. All four in the secondary are seniors and returning starters, and two of the three linebackers are seniors. This is going to be a squad that will compete for the ACC championship, and we'll likely know what to expect after their first week game in Atlanta against LSU. But returning their starting QB, almost 80% of their receptions and their entire running game is the perfect storm for a team to win us some coin this year. In addition, Phil Steele has UNC as his #8 surprise team this season.

Rice - with 18 starters returning, 9 on each side of the ball, the 2-10 (4-7-1 ATS) Owls are poised for a much better year this season. Starting at QB for a second straight year is Nick Fanuzzi, a transfer from the University of Alabama. Joining him in the backfield is a big-time playmaker that most Big Ten fans will remember: Sam McGuffie, who starred at Michigan as a true freshman in 2008. If you've been sleeping under a rock for the last two years, check out his high school highlight film, which has nearly 3 million views by now. McGuffie carried the ball 118 times for 486 yards (4.1 YPC) for 3 TDs and added nearly 200 yards receiving. For whatever reason (possibly being homesick), he transferred closer to home and is now about to be a stud for the Owls. A guy who was looking like a star at Michigan is now starting at running back in Conference USA. Just let that sink in for a minute. Protecting him are the five returning starters on the offensive line from last season. While Rice will have to figure out if their WRs can replace Toren Dixon and Taylor Wardlow without missing a beat, I expect the Owls to run the ball a lot this season. Rice's defense is a worry, having given up 40+ points 7 times last season, but returning all but two starters should improve on that. Rice will get steamrolled in its first game against Texas at Reliant Stadium, but I'd expect the Owls to fare a lot better when the Conference USA schedule rolls around. I think that Rice might get up to 6-6 this season and may win 7 or 8 games ATS.

San Jose State - the Spartans were a dreadful 2-10 last season, and even worse against the spread: 1-9-1. But things are heading in the right direction for SJSU, who return 15 starters, 8 on offense and 7 on defense. The key to this offense is the relationship of QB Jordan La Secla and his three returning WRs, who will have to replace the production of the departure of last year's top WR. Marquis Avery, Jalal Beauchman and Josh Harrison managed 109 receptions for 1,139 yards and 12 TDs last year, and should be able to gel better this year than last. The return of senior RB Lamon Muldrow will help as well, as he led the team in rushing last year. Three of the 5 starting o-linemen are returning starters, and the other two are a junior and a senior. On defense, two linebackers and the entire secondary return, so the key will be the team's ability to stop the run. With road games at Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah in three of the first four weeks, it's not going to be pretty for San Jose State record-wise in the beginning. But I think they may manage to cover 7 games this season, especially with fairly low, under-the-radar expectations right now.
Miami (OH) - there are few teams people are talking about less than Miami, yet the Redhawks should be much improved from last year's 1-11 (5-7 ATS) record. There are several reasons for this, but the most obvious is that Miami returns 10 starters on offense and 9 on defense. Sophomore QB Zac Dysert returns as a starter from a promising freshman year, as does senior RB Thomas Merriweather, who led the team in rushing. The top two WRs return, which will help Dysert immensely, and all five o-linemen are back, three of whom are seniors. On defense, everyone returns but one DT and one CB, with the entire linebacking corps returning. The new CB starter, DJ Brown, started half of the games last year as a redshirt freshman, so he won't be picked on particularly, either. I expect Miami to find 3-4 wins this season but also improve ATS, covering 7 games in my opinion.

Eastern Michigan - after finishing 0-12 (4-7 ATS) last year, the Eagles return 15 starters (8 on offense, 7 on defense), including senior RB Dwayne Priest, who was the team's sole offensive standout last year with 633 yards rushing and 7 TDs. The offensive tackles, both first-time starters, will be tested, but the core of this offense remains intact and the defense returns a good number of upperclassmen starters after surrendering 40+ points 5 times last year. I think the Eagles win 3 games this year and cover 7.

North Texas - the Mean Green were 2-10 (5-7 ATS) last year and return 17 starters, including 9 on offense -- everybody except an o-lineman and QB Derek Thompson, a sophomore. UNT returns its two leading rushers from last year, RB Lance Dunbar and WR Riley Dodge, who combined for more than 1,700 yards and 22 TDs last year. I expect UNT to up its win total to 4 or 5 and ATS record above .500 this year. It doesn't hurt that North Texas is Phil Steele's #7 most improved team, either.