Friday, August 6, 2010

Heisman Trophy darkhorses

I'm a big fan of proposition bets. The Super Bowl is full of them, such as: will the coinflip end up heads or tails? In general, I find prop bets to have some of the juiciest lines in all of betting, way more so than a simple point spread bet.

Betting on coinflips is fun, but paying the juice for a 50/50 bet is obviously not a way to retire early.

Here's one prop bet that I figured we could discuss before the season starts, since it won't be available after the first game. And after all, we've got nothing but time to kill.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
Odds according to 5Dimes
Mark Ingram +380
Terrelle Pryor +550
Jake Locker +800
Ryan Mallett +1200
Jacory Harris +1400
Noel Devine +1400
Case Keenum +1500
Dion Lewis +1500
John Clay +1500
Evan Royster +1500
Kellen Moore +1700
Andrew Luck +1800
DeMarco Murray +1800
Landry Jones +1800
Christian Ponder +1800
Damon Berry +2200
Matt Barkley +2200
Jacquizz Rodgers +2500
Garrett Gilbert +3000
LaMichael James +3300
Tate Forcier +3500
Jerrod Johnson +6000
Josh Nesbitt +6000
Blaine Gabbert +6600
Jordan Todman +6600
Robert Griffin +6600

I see some value in Jake Locker at +800, Ryan Mallett at +1200 and Andrew Luck at +1800. All three are quarterbacks -- Locker at Washington, Mallett at Arkansas and Luck at Stanford.

Locker would have been the top pick in the 2010 NFL Draft if he hadn't withdrawn and headed back to school. He's an unbelievably talented dual-threat quarterback who can kill you in the air or on his feet. As I think Washington will be one of the most improved teams this year, if Locker leads the Huskies to an 8-4 season and a decent bowl game, he has a legitimate shot at winning it.

Mallett is another stud for a lower profile team. Arkansas probably won't be in a BCS bowl game this year, but he's a huge kid with a gun for an arm. He may throw 40 touchdowns this season and more than 300 yards per game, and at 12-to-1, I think there's value in placing a small bet on him.

Luck had a great season last year as a true freshman, but this will be his breakout year, according to everybody whose opinion I value. Stanford returns a bunch of starters and could win 9 or 10 games this season. A Rose Bowl would skyrocket his chances of winning the Heisman.

What do you guys think?

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