NCAA investigating UNC

The UNC-LSU game may be worth re-evaluating.

For a while, it was considered something of a coinflip. Then, on Thursday night, something big happened.

The NCAA announced it was investigating North Carolina for potential misconduct stemming from players allegedly receiving improper benefits from sports agents.

At the same exact time, the allegations grew to academic misconduct "involving a former tutor writing papers for players," the Associated Press reported.

According to the AP: "The North Carolina Secretary of State's office has sent a letter to the more than 100 agents registered with the state notifying them of the investigation and instructing them not to destroy records. ... The Associated Press has obtained a copy of the letter; named in it are [defensive tackle Marvin] Austin, [wide receiver Greg] Little, safety Deunta Williams, cornerback Kendric Burney and linebackers Bruce Carter and Quan Sturdivant.

It's worth noting that all six of those guys returned to UNC for their senior seasons, opting not to enter the 2010 NFL Draft. All are considered potential pros.

Now, the Tar Heels have to practice without knowing how many starters won't be suiting up for the season opener in Atlanta.

It's impossible to handicap until the suspensions are announced, but even losing Austin and Little could be enough to swing the game heavily into LSU's favor. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole until we know more, but it's safe to say that if those six are missing at least Week 1 -- and possibly much longer than that -- the Tigers would be a nice moneyline play.

TCU a legitimate contender?

Despite compiling a 95-29 record over the past decade, including a 53-11 clip since 2005, TCU never really finds itself in the discussion for a national championship.

Even worse, the Horned Frogs have made just one BCS bowl appearance, losing 17-10 to Boise State in last year's Fiesta Bowl.

Yet TCU returns 16 starters, an above-average number for FBS teams, and still, despite boasting a 13-3 record against BCS teams recently, get almost no love due to its conference affiliation with the Mountain West Conference.

The Horned Frogs lose their top rusher from last year, but return their No. 2 through No. 6 rushers, their quarterback, and six of their top seven receivers from last year. Defensively, TCU must replace almost its entire linebacking unit, but returns the vast majority of the defensive line and secondary.

It remains to be seen whether the Horned Frogs will be a national championship contender this season. We'll find out how tough they are in Week 1, when they face off against Oregon State in Arlington, Texas. In Week 3, they host Baylor, this time with quarterback Robert Griffin at full health.

Las Vegas has set TCU's win total at over-under 10.5. Frankly, with home games against Baylor, BYU and Air Force, road games at SMU and Utah and a "neutral" game against Oregon State, that's as solid a schedule as most Big East or ACC teams face in any given season.

If the Horned Frogs end up 12-0, it'd be tough not to consider them for the National Championship game.

Colorado vs. Colorado State preview

Here's another preview: a rivalry game between Colorado and Colorado State. Despite Colorado competing in the Big 12 and CSU in the MWC, the Rams have been surprisingly tough in this matchup in recent years. However, Colorado is one team I feel is worth watching this year. Playing in one of the toughest conferences is no easy feat, but the Buffaloes would be a top three team in the MWC.

Last year: Colorado State 23, Colorado 17
Series history: Colorado is 5-2 in L7, 6-4 in L10, 14-4 in L18

COLORADO
OFFENSE
Returning offensive starters: 10
Starting QB returning: Yes, Tyler Hansen (Jr.)
Offensive injuries: None
OL starts lost from 2009: 0%
RB yards lost from 2009: 20%
QB yards lost from 2009: 0%
WR yards lost from 2009: 28%
DEFENSE
Returning defensive starters: 7
Defensive injuries: None
DL tackles lost from 2009: 0%
LB tackles lost from 2009: 62%
DB tackles lost from 2009: 35%

COLORADO STATE
OFFENSE
Returning offensive starters: 4
Starting QB returning: No
Offensive injuries: FB Klingerman (So., backup, gone), WR Scott (RS-Fr., starter, gone), TE Price (So., backup, gone), RB Mason (Sr., backup, questionable)
OL starts lost from 2009: 73%
RB yards lost from 2009: 8%
QB yards lost from 2009: 99%
WR yards lost from 2009: 53%
DEFENSE
Returning defensive starters: 6
Defensive injuries: LB Diehl (Jr., backup, gone), CB Taylor (RS-Fr., backup, gone), S Stratton (So., backup, gone), DE Macon (Sr., starter, out), DE Tiedgen (So., starter, out)
DL tackles lost from 2009: 75%
LB tackles lost from 2009: 0%
DB tackles lost from 2009: 33%

I've really warmed up to Colorado here. Junior QB Tyler Hansen returns healthy after coming into 2009 banged up with thumb surgery. He replaced senior QB Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, in Week 5 when Hawkins was struggling. Hansen led the Buffaloes to a 34-30 win over Kansas, a 35-34 win over Texas A&M and close losses at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State and versus Nebraska. Colorado also returns its top rusher, junior RB Rodney Stewart, the top two WRs, Scotty McKnight and Markques Simas, who combined for 119 receptions for 1,478 yards and 9 TDs last year. Hansen is clearly the better QB, and he has a fairly reliable receiving core returning from last year. With seven starts under his belt last year, he is pretty much established with the receivers. Colorado also returns all five offensive linemen, and only has to replace its starting TE. The Buffs lost some rushing and some receiving, but none of the leaders in either category. Defensively, the Buffs return seven starters, including their entire defensive line and 2/3 of their secondary. Having to replace 2/3 of their linebackers is going to be tough, but one of those is LB Jon Major, a sophomore who was the #9 MLB in the country in 2008. If he's as good as people thought he was, there shouldn't be a dropoff there.

Meanwhile, Colorado State's outlook looked rosier in April than it does now. The Rams return 10 starters, and lost both of their starting defensive ends recently due to academics and injuries. They replace their starting quarterback, return only 1.5 of 5 offensive linemen and lost around 2/3 of their receivers. Defensively, the Rams must replace 3/4 of their defensive line. While all of their linebackers and most of their secondary returns, that isn't necessarily a great thing: Colorado State's defense allowed 30+ points seven times last year.

Phil Steele has Colorado State the #7 team in the MWC. He has Colorado #3 in the Big 12 North. I think Colorado is fairly safe in this game, even in a neutral Denver site, and even with the rivalry matchup heating up this Week 1 game.

Missouri vs. Illinois preview

Here's the research I've come up with after handicapping the Missouri vs. Illinois game, which is being held in St. Louis in Week 1. I'll try to do this for a few of the Week 1 games, but it's awfully cumbersome, so I can't promise to do this every week for the games I like. I consulted several sources for this, including Phil Steele's annual magazine, Goldsheet.com (for injuries), Keepers Football for returning experience, and other sources I'll keep to myself for the time being.

Last year: Missouri 37, Illinois 9

MISSOURI
OFFENSE
Returning offensive starters: 8
Starting QB returning: Yes, Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)
Offensive injuries: WR Stricker (RS-Fr., backup, questionable), WR Jackson (Jr., WR #2, out, last year 37 rec., 458 yds., 2 TDs)
OL starts lost from 2009: 20%
RB yards lost from 2009: 3%
QB yards lost from 2009: 1%
WR yards lost from 2009: 67%
DEFENSE
Returning defensive starters: 8
Defensive injuries: LB Crane (Jr., backup, dismissed from team), S Harrison (Sr., starter, doubtful), LB Bonner (So., backup, out), LB Ebner (Jr., starter, questionable)
DL tackles lost from 2009: 30%
LB tackles lost from 2009: 35%
DB tackles lost from 2009: 2%

ILLINOIS
OFFENSE
Returning offensive starters: 5
Starting QB returning: No
Offensive injuries: QB Charest (So., backup, transferring)
OL starts lost from 2009: 40%
RB yards lost from 2009: 33%
QB yards lost from 2009: 87%
WR yards lost from 2009: 53%
DEFENSE
Returning defensive starters: 7
Defensive injuries: None
DL tackles lost from 2009: 54%
LB tackles lost from 2009: 0%
DB tackles lost from 2009: 55%

I really like Mizzou in this spot. Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert is one of the country's best, and despite losing his top three receivers from last year, he's talented enough to hopefully overcome that and make the rest of his receivers better. Besides the WRs, Mizzou returns damn near everything on offense: the top five rushers and 4 of the 5 o-linemen. Defensively, 2.5 starters return on the defensive line, as well as most of the linebacking unit, even with Ebner questionable for the opener. What I really like is that they return all four starters in the secondary, which should mean great things when facing off against Illinois' new passing game.

Illinois loses QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn, their two "stars" from last year's squad. With five returning starters, the Illini must replace their starting QB, their top two WRs, two OLs, and their starting TE. They lost 1/3 of their running game from last year without Juice, but return their top two RBs. Illinois must completely replace their passing game, and is starting a redshirt freshman at QB, and their top two returning WRs combined for 26 receptions for 341 yards and 2 TDs. This should be a HUGE red flag for bettors, as they are facing off against one of Missouri's most experienced units: the secondary. Defensively, Illinois returns seven starters, but loses half of their DL and half of their secondary from last year.

Phil Steele has Mizzou as his #2 team in the Big 12 North. PS has Illinois his #8 team in the Big Ten. I think Missouri should safely win this game. Not sure about the point spread, but this should be a safe win for the Tigers in neutral St. Louis.

The Year of the Quarterback

The 2009 college football season was the Year of the Tackle.

It's not the sexiest position on the field, but come April, nine of the 32 first-rounders were either offensive or defensive tackles, including five of the top 10.

Add in four defensive ends between picks 13 and 32, a guard and a center, and you've got 15 lineman on both sides of the ball going in the first round. Not bad considering those positions typically account for nine of the 22 players on the field.

Maybe you could call it the Year of the Lineman.

Well, 2010 is going to be the Year of the Quarterback. Plenty of quarterbacks could play their way into a first round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, and a handful would have to play their way out of it to not be invited to Radio City Music Hall.

Last year, just three quarterbacks went in the first two rounds: Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Florida's Tim Tebow and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen. Three more went in rounds three and four, but nine went in the last three rounds -- a sign that most teams weren't too high on that crop of quarterbacks.

Five prospects are considered top 50 picks -- or solid second-rounders -- by ESPN, heading into the season: Washington's Jake Locker, Stanford's Andrew Luck, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, Missouri's Blaine Gabbert and Florida State's Christian Ponder.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay's first mock draft, which ends up not looking much like his final mock draft, has Luck going No. 1 to the Bills, Locker going No. 9 to the Jaguars and Mallett going No. 15 to the 49ers, with Ponder listed as the "top remaining prospect" after the first round.

Yet, with another good season, Texas A&M's Jerrod Johnson could "catapult" up the list, according to ESPN's Mel Kiper. The Worldwide Leader also doesn't project Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor leaving for the draft, but he absolutely could, and would almost certainly be a first or second round pick.

WalterFootball.com has Locker, Luck, Ponder and Mallett all going in the first round -- in that order -- with Delaware's Pat Devlin coming off the board in Round 2. Sports Illustrated has Mallett, Gabbert and Locker in the top 10, with Ponder going No. 28 to the Vikings.

I think Locker and Mallett will be the two most successful quarterbacks in the draft. If your NFL team's quarterback situation needs a long-term fix -- I'm looking at you, Washington, Minnesota, Arizona, San Francisco and Seattle -- you should probably be rooting for that in next year's quarterback-heavy draft.

Against the spread in Week 1

The longer you sit around and wait on Week 1 lines, the worse the price will be -- at least, if you're looking to bet on the favorites.

Georgia opened up at -25.5 but has already been bet up to -28 at most books. Same goes for USC, which opened at -18.5 and is now up to -21.

In general, the best handicappers grab the lines while they're soft, loading up on the Georgias and USCs of the week.

I'll never publish an entry telling you what you should have done. It's pointless. Why recommend Georgia at -25.5 if you can't find them anywhere better than -28? That's wasting both of our times.

Anyway, here are a few games I really like, even a couple weeks after the lines have been released:

• Western Michigan +21.5 at Michigan State -- I was sure this game was coming in around +14. Instead, it opened at +21 and has actually moved to +21.5, meaning if Michigan State wins by 21, or a touchdown more than I thought they would, we still win the bet.
  

• Northwestern -3.5 at Vanderbilt -- It opened at -3 and has moved to -3.5, but I think this is a good play all the way up to -5.5. Northwestern should definitely win this game outright. Another option would be to parlay the moneyline with USC and/or a few other steep moneylines, to make Northwestern a +100 line. It wouldn't take much.

• Maryland +7 at Navy -- I think the Terps could win this game outright, or at least make it go down to a last-minute drive. I actually endorse betting the +200 moneyline, but think that betting the point spread is obviously much safer. It's hard to remove bias from Maryland games, but I don't think Navy is a touchdown better, even in Baltimore.

I did like Georgia at -25.5, USC at -18.5 and Nebraska at -34, but all of those games have moved up to -- or worse, beyond -- key numbers: 28, 21 and 35, respectively. I can't recommend betting on those games unless you plan to tease them, and in general, teasing college games is a waste of value.

USC is particularly painful: Hawaii is starting four new offensive linemen against the Trojans' defensive line. That's not a fun way to start your college career.

Other games I like, but haven't looked into quite enough for a full-on recommendation:

• Arizona -15 at Toledo -- like the Western Michigan game, I figured this game would be around -21 or so. Even though we're missing the critical 14 number, six points off the spread is a huge difference.

• UAB/Florida Atlantic under 54.5 -- UAB loses long-time starting QB Joe Webb, and this is their first game without him in almost four years. Meanwhile, FAU returns two offensive starters and nine defensive starters. My theory is that UAB will struggle to score with a new quarterback, FAU will struggle with only two returning starters, and FAU's defense will keep UAB in check by returning almost their entire defense.
  

Returning experience

While we continue to count down to the beginning of the glorious college football season, I try to come up with new ways to look at old information. By taking a different approach on a certain statistic, you can discover more ways to see how strong (or weak) a team will be.

The offensive line is not a position of glory. It's frequently overlooked and rarely considered when people look at a team's strengths and weaknesses. The difference between a strong offensive line and a weak offensive line could be the difference between a BCS Bowl and the Toilet Bowl.

Here's a list of the teams returning all five offensive linemen from last year's team as well as their starting quarterbacks:

• Ball State - Sophomore QB Kelly Page is back from last year's mildly successful 2009 campaign. Though he suffered a broken thumb and had to miss the last five games of the season, he should be ready to lead the Cardinals to more wins this season.
• Colorado - QB Tyler Hansen took the reins from coach's son Cody Hawkins last year after the Buffaloes started off 1-3. Hansen was efficient but really could have used RB Darrell Scott this season. Scott transferred to South Florida for more playing time.
  
• Florida State - QB Christian Ponder is a familiar face to ACC fans. He's the team's starting quarterback for the third year in a row, and hopes to rebound from last year's season-ending shoulder injury that sidelined him for four games last year.
  
• Fresno State - QB Ryan Colburn led the Bulldogs successfully as a junior, and should be poised for even better numbers this year. He helped guide Fresno State to an 8-5 record behind 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and if he can improve on those numbers a bit this year, the Bulldogs could have a nine-win season in them.
  
• Louisiana Tech - Senior QB Ross Jenkins threw for 105 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions as a sophomore, then broke out last year with 175 yards per game, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions as a junior. At this rate, he could finish second team All-WAC -- behind Boise State's Kellen Moore.
  
• Minnesota - QB Adam Weber enters his fourth year as starting quarterback for Minnesota. Though the Golden Gophers haven't had a ton of success, he's a steady, what-you-see-is-what-you-get type of player.
  
• South Florida - QB BJ Daniels was one of the Big East's big playmakers last year. After Matt Grothe went down with a season-ending knee injury, Daniels stepped up to lead the team in passing and rushing. He's an exciting player to watch, and his dual-threat style of play is similar to Grothe.
  
• Wisconsin - QB Scott Tolzien returns for his second full year as a starter. In 2009, he was efficient yet unspectacular in the Badgers' 10-3 season.
  

Considering Florida State and Wisconsin are expected to challenge for their respective conference titles, this may be a good thing to consider. And before betting against teams that will finish in the middle or at the bottom of their conferences, be careful with teams like Colorado, South Florida and Minnesota.

Another interesting statistical category is a team that returns all of its starters on the line, but a different quarterback. These teams may be worth monitoring once they play their first tough game, as they probably won't have as much chemistry as the previous category of teams:

• Georgia
• Kansas
• Memphis
• Northwestern
• Oregon (pictured, right)
  
• Rice

Oregon is the only team in this group expected to be truly competitive this year in its conference. Rice and Northwestern would be happy to finish in the middle of the pack, and Georgia, Kansas and Memphis don't have lofty expectations, either.

Bowl game projections

Previews and predictions are a lot of fun before the season, especially if you document who you think will end up in each bowl game.

I don't claim to be an expert on the topic, but I do use my own system of power rankings in handicapping. These power rankings fluctuate when a team has a bad game or loses a star player, though.

It's impossible to predict what hurdles a team will face over the course of the season. That doesn't make it any less fun to predict who plays who come December and January's bowl games.

Here are my predictions:

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Iowa
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. TCU
Capital One Bowl: Penn State vs. Arkansas
Cotton Bowl: Texas vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Gator Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Florida State
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Georgia
Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Champs Sports Bowl: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame
Alamo Bowl: California vs. Texas A&M
Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. Kansas
Pinstripe Bowl: Connecticut vs. Texas Tech
Insight Bowl: Missouri vs. Michigan State
Sun Bowl: Clemson vs. Washington

Coaches on the hot seat

Every year, some new names and some familiar faces prop themselves up on the proverbial coaching "hot seat". These guys are just one bad season away from losing their jobs. Some may not even make it through the full season before getting canned.

Phil Steele recently listed 13 coaches whose seats are dangerously warm: Michigan's Rich Rodriguez, Illinois' Ron Zook, LSU's Les Miles, Colorado's Dan Hawkins, Minnesota's Tim Brewster, North Texas' Todd Dodge, Maryland's Ralph Friedgen, Indiana's Bill Lynch, NC State's Tom O'Brien, Kent State's Doug Martin, Arizona State's Dennis Erickson, Arkansas State's Steve Roberts and Texas A&M's Mike Sherman.

He's got his theory on why these guys need to step their game up. Below, I've got my analysis for his five hottest seats. The rest of his article can be found on his blog at www.philsteele.com.

1. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan – Any time you're taking a job at a Michigan, an Ohio State, a Texas or an Oklahoma-type program, it comes with immediate expectations of winning, and winning big. You can't hover at or below .500 for too long. Well, RichRod practically fell out of the gate with two losing seasons in a row. He's got to win at least eight games to avoid a severance package.

2. Ron Zook, Illinois – Zook has had an up and down head coaching career. He's always been a good recruiter -- at Florida and Illinois -- but outside of a single, seemingly out-of-nowhere Rose Bowl in 2007, his results on the field have fallen short of expectations. He's in trouble this year without long-time starter Juice Williams, and will have to pull something miraculous out to not only become bowl eligible, but keep his job.

3. Les Miles, LSU – Miles started off amazingly well in his first three years, consistently remaining in the top five and winning the 2007 National Championship. But just the next year, his team was unranked. Despite a tough-as-nails schedule, he's got to get them back to being the perennial powerhouse that LSU fans have come to expect.

4. Dan Hawkins, Colorado – Before Colorado heads to the Pac-10, Hawkins will have to prove himself worthy of staying on as head coach. His record so far doesn't indicate he's a good long-term investment, and the Buffaloes could easily go with a new face to the team when they join their new conference.

5. Tim Brewster, Minnesota – Brewster turned the Gophers around big time in 2008, improving six games from their 1-11 record in 2007. But this year's squad looks to take a big step back with just two returning defensive starters. A three- or four-win season could be all it takes to get Brewster back in the unemployment line.

Heisman Trophy darkhorses

I'm a big fan of proposition bets. The Super Bowl is full of them, such as: will the coinflip end up heads or tails? In general, I find prop bets to have some of the juiciest lines in all of betting, way more so than a simple point spread bet.

Betting on coinflips is fun, but paying the juice for a 50/50 bet is obviously not a way to retire early.

Here's one prop bet that I figured we could discuss before the season starts, since it won't be available after the first game. And after all, we've got nothing but time to kill.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
Odds according to 5Dimes
Mark Ingram +380
Terrelle Pryor +550
Jake Locker +800
Ryan Mallett +1200
Jacory Harris +1400
Noel Devine +1400
Case Keenum +1500
Dion Lewis +1500
John Clay +1500
Evan Royster +1500
Kellen Moore +1700
Andrew Luck +1800
DeMarco Murray +1800
Landry Jones +1800
Christian Ponder +1800
Damon Berry +2200
Matt Barkley +2200
Jacquizz Rodgers +2500
Garrett Gilbert +3000
LaMichael James +3300
Tate Forcier +3500
Jerrod Johnson +6000
Josh Nesbitt +6000
Blaine Gabbert +6600
Jordan Todman +6600
Robert Griffin +6600

I see some value in Jake Locker at +800, Ryan Mallett at +1200 and Andrew Luck at +1800. All three are quarterbacks -- Locker at Washington, Mallett at Arkansas and Luck at Stanford.

Locker would have been the top pick in the 2010 NFL Draft if he hadn't withdrawn and headed back to school. He's an unbelievably talented dual-threat quarterback who can kill you in the air or on his feet. As I think Washington will be one of the most improved teams this year, if Locker leads the Huskies to an 8-4 season and a decent bowl game, he has a legitimate shot at winning it.

Mallett is another stud for a lower profile team. Arkansas probably won't be in a BCS bowl game this year, but he's a huge kid with a gun for an arm. He may throw 40 touchdowns this season and more than 300 yards per game, and at 12-to-1, I think there's value in placing a small bet on him.

Luck had a great season last year as a true freshman, but this will be his breakout year, according to everybody whose opinion I value. Stanford returns a bunch of starters and could win 9 or 10 games this season. A Rose Bowl would skyrocket his chances of winning the Heisman.

What do you guys think?

2010's most improved teams

One of the simplest ways to predict if a team will get better or worse from last year's results is to look at which teams return the majority of their starters.

If a team is returning fewer than 12 starters, it's not uncommon to see a team stumble out of the gates while it gets its bearings. It's not always a sure thing, but more often than not, that statement is true.

Here's my list of teams that I think will increase their win total from last year. In parentheses are the number of returning starters, and the team's wins last year.

1. South Carolina (15, 7)
2. Michigan (15, 5)
3. Texas A&M (16, 6)
4. Missouri (16, 8)
5. North Carolina (19, 8)
6. Florida State (15, 7)
7. Washington (18, 5)
8. UNLV (15, 5)
9. Army (16, 5)
10. Kent State (15, 5)
11. Northern Illinois (15, 7)

In general, the high number of returning starters leads me to believe these teams will not only be more competitive throughout the season, but will also hit the ground running. A lot of these teams have tough schedules.

Look at North Carolina, who returns 19 starters from last year's 8-win season, but faces off against #17 LSU, #13 Georgia Tech and travels to Rutgers in the first three weeks of the season. Certainly not an easy task.

In his annual magazine, Phil Steele lists the 19 teams he thinks will be most improved from last year to this year. That list doesn't account for point spreads -- just straight up wins. Here's who he likes. Note that several of his teams overlap with several of mine. While I usually feel bad about reprinting someone's hard work, this magazine has been out for more than a month, and is available on other sites as well. However, I should probably plug his website, www.philsteele.com, which is a great source of information during the college football season.

1. Tulsa (5-7 last year)
2. Ball State (2-10)
3. Notre Dame (6-6)
4. Western Michigan (5-7)
5. Michigan (5-7)
6. San Diego State (4-8)
7. North Texas (2-10)
8. Michigan State (6-7)
9. Texas A&M (6-7)
10. Washington (5-7)
11. Kent State (5-7)
12. Louisiana Tech (4-8)
13. Maryland (2-10)
14. Hawaii (6-7)
15. UTEP (4-8)
16. Colorado (3-9)
17. Baylor (4-8)
18. UAB (5-7)
19. Illinois (3-9)

Moneymakers in 2010

Here's my list of teams that burned people against the spread in 2009, but are poised for a profitable 2010 season, with a bit of reasoning to go along with each team. If you simply bet blindly on each team every week this season, you should come out on top. There's some solid evidence that points to these teams turning it around against the spread this upcoming season.

Minnesota - the Gophers return 9 starters on offense coming off a 6-7 (4-8 ATS) season last year. That means almost everybody except their top two wide receivers. This is a senior-laden group, starting with QB Adam Weber. In the backfield are four of the top five rushers from last year, including starting RB Duane Bennett, a junior. The only source of concern on offense is at wide receiver, after losing 46% of their receptions from last year. The top receiver is #3 WR DaJon McKnight, who only caught 17 passes last year but is a legitimate deep ball threat. All five of the offensive linemen return, four of whom are seniors and one is a junior. On defense is where I pause, because returning just 2 defensive starters is going to be a big reason why this team soars or flops. However, of the projected starters, seven are upperclassmen and four are sophomores. The two returning starters are senior safeties. I'm not sure that this team will win 8 games ATS, but I think at worst you're looking at a two game improvement.

Missouri - the Tigers return 16 starters, 8 on offense and 8 on defense, and are rebounding off an 8-5 (4-8 ATS) season. QB Blaine Gabbert is back, and even though Mizzou's top two WRs are not, the passing attack should be fine. The third, fourth and fifth WRs return, combining for 86 receptions last year. The Tigers also return senior RB Derrick Washington, four of five starters on the offensive line and their starting TE. On defense, Mizzou replaces two d-linemen with juniors, and has an all-senior secondary. This should be a good year for the Tigers, who I expect to be 5-0 heading to Texas A&M in mid-October. With Gabbert proving himself last year and the team returning so much on both sides of the ball, I think that a profitable year should be expected.

North Carolina - the Heels are one of my favorite teams to surprise folks this year. Coming off an 8-5 (5-6 ATS) season, their best straight up since 2001, UNC still didn't make bettors any money. This year, the Heels return 19 starters, 10 on offense and 9 on defense. Everyone returns from last year's squad that ended up in the Meineke Car Care Bowl for the second straight season, including seniors QB TJ Yates and RB Shaun Draughn. On defense, the d-line replaces two starters but also returns Robert Quinn and Marvin Austin, both projected to be high first-round draft picks in 2011. All four in the secondary are seniors and returning starters, and two of the three linebackers are seniors. This is going to be a squad that will compete for the ACC championship, and we'll likely know what to expect after their first week game in Atlanta against LSU. But returning their starting QB, almost 80% of their receptions and their entire running game is the perfect storm for a team to win us some coin this year. In addition, Phil Steele has UNC as his #8 surprise team this season.

Rice - with 18 starters returning, 9 on each side of the ball, the 2-10 (4-7-1 ATS) Owls are poised for a much better year this season. Starting at QB for a second straight year is Nick Fanuzzi, a transfer from the University of Alabama. Joining him in the backfield is a big-time playmaker that most Big Ten fans will remember: Sam McGuffie, who starred at Michigan as a true freshman in 2008. If you've been sleeping under a rock for the last two years, check out his high school highlight film, which has nearly 3 million views by now. McGuffie carried the ball 118 times for 486 yards (4.1 YPC) for 3 TDs and added nearly 200 yards receiving. For whatever reason (possibly being homesick), he transferred closer to home and is now about to be a stud for the Owls. A guy who was looking like a star at Michigan is now starting at running back in Conference USA. Just let that sink in for a minute. Protecting him are the five returning starters on the offensive line from last season. While Rice will have to figure out if their WRs can replace Toren Dixon and Taylor Wardlow without missing a beat, I expect the Owls to run the ball a lot this season. Rice's defense is a worry, having given up 40+ points 7 times last season, but returning all but two starters should improve on that. Rice will get steamrolled in its first game against Texas at Reliant Stadium, but I'd expect the Owls to fare a lot better when the Conference USA schedule rolls around. I think that Rice might get up to 6-6 this season and may win 7 or 8 games ATS.

San Jose State - the Spartans were a dreadful 2-10 last season, and even worse against the spread: 1-9-1. But things are heading in the right direction for SJSU, who return 15 starters, 8 on offense and 7 on defense. The key to this offense is the relationship of QB Jordan La Secla and his three returning WRs, who will have to replace the production of the departure of last year's top WR. Marquis Avery, Jalal Beauchman and Josh Harrison managed 109 receptions for 1,139 yards and 12 TDs last year, and should be able to gel better this year than last. The return of senior RB Lamon Muldrow will help as well, as he led the team in rushing last year. Three of the 5 starting o-linemen are returning starters, and the other two are a junior and a senior. On defense, two linebackers and the entire secondary return, so the key will be the team's ability to stop the run. With road games at Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah in three of the first four weeks, it's not going to be pretty for San Jose State record-wise in the beginning. But I think they may manage to cover 7 games this season, especially with fairly low, under-the-radar expectations right now.
Miami (OH) - there are few teams people are talking about less than Miami, yet the Redhawks should be much improved from last year's 1-11 (5-7 ATS) record. There are several reasons for this, but the most obvious is that Miami returns 10 starters on offense and 9 on defense. Sophomore QB Zac Dysert returns as a starter from a promising freshman year, as does senior RB Thomas Merriweather, who led the team in rushing. The top two WRs return, which will help Dysert immensely, and all five o-linemen are back, three of whom are seniors. On defense, everyone returns but one DT and one CB, with the entire linebacking corps returning. The new CB starter, DJ Brown, started half of the games last year as a redshirt freshman, so he won't be picked on particularly, either. I expect Miami to find 3-4 wins this season but also improve ATS, covering 7 games in my opinion.

Eastern Michigan - after finishing 0-12 (4-7 ATS) last year, the Eagles return 15 starters (8 on offense, 7 on defense), including senior RB Dwayne Priest, who was the team's sole offensive standout last year with 633 yards rushing and 7 TDs. The offensive tackles, both first-time starters, will be tested, but the core of this offense remains intact and the defense returns a good number of upperclassmen starters after surrendering 40+ points 5 times last year. I think the Eagles win 3 games this year and cover 7.

North Texas - the Mean Green were 2-10 (5-7 ATS) last year and return 17 starters, including 9 on offense -- everybody except an o-lineman and QB Derek Thompson, a sophomore. UNT returns its two leading rushers from last year, RB Lance Dunbar and WR Riley Dodge, who combined for more than 1,700 yards and 22 TDs last year. I expect UNT to up its win total to 4 or 5 and ATS record above .500 this year. It doesn't hurt that North Texas is Phil Steele's #7 most improved team, either.