Thursday, September 2, 2010

Week 1 bets

My slate starts clean, at 0-0-0 for +0.00 units for the 2010 season. I have a fairly unique (I think) strategy that has worked well in the past for me. It may be unusual, but it's my thread, so I get to decide what to bet on.

Here's what I'm on for Week 1. It's loaded up way more than I had originally planned to, but when you see an edge, you'd better take it.

All of my plays for Week 1 are 4- or 5-team parlays. Four of the same team, over and over, parlayed with spreads or moneylines that I like. USC, Colorado, Ohio State and Georgia help bring down the juice for all of my lines so that instead of needing to hit ~53% all season, I only need to hit ~40% and I'll still turn a healthy profit.

However, if any of those four lose, I lose all of my bets this week.
  1. Nebraska -34.5 (-170) + USC -1400 ML + Colorado -455 ML + Ohio State -8500 ML + Georgia -6000 ML -- 2u to win 2.27u
  2. Northwestern -215 ML + those four -- 2u to win 1.94u
  3. Navy -250 ML + those four -- 2u to win 1.76u
  4. Ohio State -27.5 (-130) + USC ML, Colorado ML, Georgia ML -- 1.7u to win 2.3u
  5. Army -355 ML + those four -- 1.5u to win 1.09u
  6. Western Michigan +23 + those four -- 1.2u to win 1.57u
  7. Missouri -465 ML + those four -- 1.2u to win .76u
  8. Arizona -13.5 (-150) + those four -- 1u to win 1.24u
  9. Florida -34.5 (-120) + those four -- 1u to win 1.47u
  10. Washington State +15.5 + those four -- 1u to win 1.57u
  11. Washington +127 ML + those four -- .8u to win 1.64u
  12. Virginia Tech +113 ML + those four -- .8u to win 1.49u
  13. USC/Hawaii UNDER 54 + Colorado ML, Georgia ML, Ohio State ML -- .8u to win 1.12u
  14. Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 45.5 + those four -- .7u to win 1.1u
  15. Kansas State/UCLA UNDER 45 + those four -- .7u to win 1.1u
  16. LSU -165 ML + those four -- .5u to win .58u
  17. Minnesota -143 ML + those four -- .5u to win .67u
  18. Syracuse/Akron UNDER 42.5 (-120) + those four -- .5u to win .73u
  19. Baylor -38.5 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
  20. South Carolina State +30 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
  21. Jacksonville State +27 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
  22. California -28.5 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
After the games finish this week, I'll tally up my results. If any of those four teams lose, it'll be pretty easy. I'll have a 0-22, -21.5 unit week. Yikes!

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