Stanford-Oregon showdown this weekend

There are three must-watch college football games this weekend, including the Red River Rivalry, between No. 21 Texas and No. 8 Oklahoma, and the SEC matchup where No. 7 Florida travels to No. 1 Alabama.

If you had to choose, though, you should tune in for No. 9 Stanford at No. 4 Oregon.

It may not be a true rivalry game, but it's a battle between two teams that have been absolutely slaughtering teams left and right this season. And it's likely going to be prequel to the Pac-10 Championship Game.

Over the past eight years, this game hasn't been much of a nailbiter. Oregon has won all four by an average of 27 points. But Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh has the Cardinal playing out of their minds right now.

Both teams have outstanding, high-octane offenses and shutdown defenses.

Oregon ranks first in the country in points per game (57.8) and third in offensive yardage (555). Its rushing game is fourth-best in the country per game (316.8).

But Stanford isn't far behind. It ranks fourth in points per game (48) and 24th in offensive yards per game (457.5).

On defense, the Ducks may hold the edge. While Stanford is tied for second in the country for most sacks (14), Oregon leads the country in passes defended (27), is third in interceptions (nine) and has two defensive touchdowns this year, good for fourth in the nation.

Oregon has shut teams down this season, winning its first three games by a 189-13 margin. But two of those teams were powder soft: New Mexico and FCS Portland State. Meanwhile, Stanford has been putting up huge numbers and beating teams like UCLA, Wake Forest and Notre Dame.

Though Oregon enters the game as a seven-point favorite, it'd be surprising if this game didn't come down to the last possession. And there may be nobody else in college football that I'd rather have leading the two minute drill than Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

Heisman Trophy update

Just four weeks into the season, and the Heisman Trophy race is beginning to look like a three-horse race. But Las Vegas is misleading you. While Alabama running back Mark Ingram might be the best player on the best team in the country, his statistics aren't worthy of earning back-to-back Heisman Trophies.

At +375, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson has gone from under the radar to one of the most likely candidates. And while his statistics are out of this world (731 passing yards, 688 rushing yards, 10 total touchdowns and one interception), he and the Wolverines should both come back down to reality before season's end.

Here are some guys who present an interesting value:

Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor (+500) -- Pryor deserves to win the Heisman as much as anyone, and at 5-to-1, that's great value. The Buckeyes are clearly a top five team with a chance of winning the National Championship. If they get there, it'll be because of Pryor. That in itself could be deserving of the Heisman.

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck (+1000) -- Luck has done nothing to deserve not being among the top for consideration of the Heisman Trophy. Without him, Stanford is at best a seven- or eight-win team. With him, they're a national contender. Luck has been phenomenal, throwing for 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions despite playing a tough schedule. He's completing 63 percent of his passes and, if this keeps up, may lead them to a Rose Bowl.

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett (+1000) -- Mallett leads all FBS quarterbacks with 1,838 passing yards, more than 500 yards ahead of the No. 2 passer in the country. He leads the country in passing touchdowns (13) and is completing 68 percent of his passes, too. Though Arkansas won't be in the National Championship race, it's hard not to consider Mallett a legitimate contender with those numbers.

Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones (+1800) -- Oklahoma could end up in the National Championship. If it does, the Sooners don't have a ton of options for where the trophy could end up. Jones has played very well this season, filling in admirably for Sam Bradford, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Jones is throwing for more than 300 yards per game and has nine passing touchdowns through four games. He's an interesting darkhorse if Oklahoma runs the table.

Oregon running back LaMichael James (+2300) -- James' 158.3 yards rushing per game is good for second in the country, but his team is currently ranked No. 4. The Heisman committee loves to give the award to a star player on a highly ranked team, and James is Oregon's best bet by far.

Oklahoma running back DeMarco Murray (+6000) -- Murray is a workhorse on a Top 10 team. He leads the country in carries (105) and is fifth in rushing touchdowns (4). He's 20th in rushing yards, but if Oklahoma runs the table and wins the Big 12, much of that will be because of Murray.

Alabama running back Trent Richardson (+6000) -- If Alabama gets to the National Championship undefeated, the award could easily go to the best statistical guy on the Crimson Tide. Last year that was Ingram. But so far this year, Richardson has more carries and more yards (albeit in two more games) than Ingram. He's averaging 7.6 yards per carry, too.

The best of the undefeateds

Plenty of teams have come out of the woodworks to establish themselves as title contenders this year. So far, 21 teams remain a perfect 4-0 through the first month of the season.

But that list includes teams like Northwestern, whose biggest win is over Vanderbilt, and Kansas State, which holds one good win under its belt (UCLA).

So, who is the best of the unbeaten teams? In no particular order...

NC State -- For a team not considered an ACC Championship contender heading into the season, the Wolfpack have silenced doubters everywhere. Road wins over Central Florida and most recently Georgia Tech (45-28) have people paying attention to NC State. A Week 3 drubbing of Cincinnati added to the hype.

Michigan -- Other teams may hold better wins, but no team needed a 4-0 head start than Michigan. Head coach Rich Rodriguez was on the hot seat coming into the season, but a 20-point win over UConn in Week 1 got the momentum moving in Michigan's favor. The Wolverines followed that up with a win at Notre Dame, and two wins over FCS Massachusetts and a blowout of Bowling Green. In the process, quarterback Denard Robinson has become a frontrunner to win the coveted Heisman Trophy.

Oregon -- There are four Pac-10 teams that are 4-0 right now, but Oregon and Stanford are playing at a different level. The Ducks have scored no fewer than 42 points in each of their four games this season, and now hold road wins over Tennessee and Arizona State. It's why they're the No. 4 team in the country right now.

Stanford -- Quarterback Andrew Luck is the real deal, and he has led Stanford to road wins over UCLA and Notre Dame. He also orchestrated a 68-24 win over Wake Forest in Week 3, exposing the talent difference between them and a middle-of-the-pack BCS conference team.

Auburn -- Some considered Auburn a darkhorse for a National Championship contender prior to the season, and the Tigers have delivered. A road win over Mississippi State led into a thrilling 27-24 win over Clemson, and, most recently, a 35-27 win over No. 12 South Carolina.

Alabama -- A convincing win over No. 22 Penn State (24-3) and a 62-13 beatdown at Duke led into a huge 24-20 road win at No. 15 Arkansas. That last one was big, too, not only for Alabama's National Championship hopes, but for showing its resilience. The Crimson Tide trailed 20-7 late in the third quarter before staging a critical comeback.

Benched Press on the radio

On Friday, WKSR's Wade Neely invited me onto "The Wade Neely Morning Show," which runs Monday through Friday, 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. Eastern time.

Neely hosts a talk show with a sports focus, and had me on to break down Week 4's slate of college football games. I posted this on my other blog, Benched Press, but since the segment was all about college football, thought I'd share it here, too.

I already had something up for Friday, so I saved it for today. Now that the games are finished, you can hear how my predictions did. Enjoy!

Week 4 bets

Week 3 was pretty kind to us, but it could have been even kinder. USC head coach Lane Kiffin blew the cover against Minnesota late, which would have been almost an extra five units coming my way. Anyway, onto a new week.

Week 3 recap: 9-4-0, +6.98 units
Season recap: 28-22-0, +7.08 units

This week, the teams I'm using in all of my parlays are: UConn, Missouri, Texas, Florida State and TCU. UConn is at home against Buffalo, facing a somewhat must-win game. Mizzou is playing Miami (OH), Texas has UCLA at home, Florida State plays Wake Forest, and TCU travels to SMU tonight.

1. Stanford -4.5 + UConn -1100 + Mizzou -1100 + Texas -650 + Florida State -1000 + TCU -1000 -- 4.6u to win 10u
2. Oklahoma -500 ML + those four -- 2.52u to win 2.5u
3. Maryland -460 ML + those four -- 1.96u to win 2u
   
4. Alabama -265 ML + those four -- 1.55u to win 2u
5. Baylor -300 ML + those four -- 1.44u to win 1.75u
6. NC State +8 -- 1.1u to win 1u
   
7. West Virginia +10 -- 1.1u to win 1u
   
8. TCU -18 -- 1.05u to win 1u
   
9. Big parlay: TCU + Michigan + Iowa + Florida State + UConn + Mizzou + Oklahoma + Alabama + Stanford -4.5 + Texas + USC + Kansas + Florida + Maryland -- .38u to win 3u

Small card, relatively speaking. Stanford is my pick of the week, so I loaded up on them. Good luck this week.

Total risk: 15.7u to win 24.25u

Week 4 upsets to watch out for

Every week, a handful of underdogs upset the favorites, not only covering the point spread but winning outright. While it's difficult to pick those winners correctly, it isn't difficult to pinpoint some teams that could cause trouble for other teams.

Here are what I feel are the three likeliest upsets in Week 4:

West Virginia over LSU. WVU is on the road and a 9.5-point underdog. Yet, both teams are undefeated, and LSU won a Week 1 barnburner against UNC, a team slightly worse than the Mountaineers.

WVU is a great value this week, needing to win just 25% of the time to break even. The Mountaineers barely edged in-state rival Marshall 24-21 in Week 2, but beat visiting Maryland handily last week, 31-17.

LSU hasn't truly been pushed to its limits yet, and West Virginia is clearly the best team it's played all year. The Tigers beat a depleted UNC team 30-24 after the Tar Heels suspended several players for misconduct. LSU then beat Vanderbilt, an SEC bottom feeder, and Mississippi State, a respectable win.

With the way West Virginia looked in the first half last Saturday, it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull off a big road win in Baton Rouge.

Upset special No. 2 is NC State, an eight-point underdog to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lost an embarrassing road game to Kansas, then bounced back with a nailbiter win over UNC. But NC State has stealthily flown under the radar with a 3-0 record, beating Central Florida on the road and then taking care of Cincinnati 30-19 at home last week.

Needing to win just 27% of the time to turn a profit, the 3-0 Wolfpack could cause some grief in Georgia.

The biggest longshot that could drop jaws this weekend? Temple, which opened as a 17-point underdog when it travels to play Penn State.

The line has since dropped to 13.5, a pretty significant movement, but probably justified considering how Temple manhandled UConn 30-16 last week. And its moneyline is big enough that Temple only needs to win 20% of the time to profit.

PSU has beaten FCS Youngstown State (yawn) and Kent State (yawn) but got whipped 24-3 against Alabama. Crimson Tide running back Trent Richardson had a monster game against Penn State, carrying the ball 22 times for 144 yards and a touchdown.

Temple's strength is in its running game, too. Running back Bernard Pierce is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season and torched UConn for 169 yards, one rushing and one receiving touchdown last week.

Terps vs. Florida International preview

In its sixth year as an FBS member, Florida International has never beaten a BCS team -- that is, a team from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC.

Now, they head to College Park, Maryland, to try and make history.

So, what are the main storylines for Saturday?

1. Maryland is dinged up. Starting left tackle Justin Gilbert is done for the season with a torn ACL, forcing the Terps to shift the other linemen around like a puzzle to find the next best lineup.

Meanwhile, starting quarterback Jamarr Robinson (shoulder) and backup Danny O'Brien (ankle) are fighting off injury. Head coach Ralph Friedgen has said that both will be healthy enough to play on Saturday, but in the case that either one goes down with injury, true freshman Devin Burns would serve as the backup and potentially burn his redshirt.

2. FIU is looking for its first BCS win. The Golden Panthers have gotten within striking distance twice already this year, falling just short of beating Rutgers (at home) and Texas A&M (on the road). FIU lost 19-14 to Rutgers and 27-20 to Texas A&M. It's pretty clear that Maryland can't simply sleepwalk through this game as if it was against Morgan State again. If FIU doesn't win on Saturday, it'll have its fourth chance to win a game against a BCS team in as many weeks when it travels to Pittsburgh.

3. This is an important game for Maryland. It sounds silly, but it's true. There aren't many more "gimmie" games left on the Terps' schedule, and it could really use a win here. Next week against Duke is much of the same. After next week, Maryland is on the road four out of five weeks, before returning to play Florida State. Getting to 3-1 (and ideally 4-1 after Duke) before a long road trip would be huge for Maryland's bowl bid hopes.

This marks the third time these two teams have played, the first two coming in 2006 and 2007, where Maryland won 14-10 and 26-10, respectively.

FCS narrowing the gap

After No. 20 Michigan narrowly escaped FCS Massachusetts last Saturday, it became just another piece of evidence that the once-cupcake Division I-AA has significantly narrowed the gap to its Football Bowl Division "superiors".

Just a few years ago, Appalachian State shocked the country when it beat Michigan in The Big House.

The USA Today headline read: "Unfathomable becomes a reality for Appalachian State". Today, it might read, "Just another FCS win over FBS".

This year, Gardner-Webb beat Akron, Liberty beat Ball State and South Dakota beat Minnesota. Villanova nearly joined that list but fell just short of an upset to Temple. But all of the FCS wins aren't coming from beating up on lowly I-AA teams.

North Dakota State beat Kansas 6-3 in Jayhawks coach Turner Gill's first game in Lawrence, Kansas. Jacksonville State topped Ole Miss in double overtime in a 49-48 shootout.

But the most impressive win of all was James Madison over No. 13 Virginia Tech, 21-16.

FCS teams are at a clear disadvantage, but don't seem to be complaining. Despite a limit of 63 scholarships (versus FBS' 85), it hasn't slowed down the mid-majors.

It forces teams to play with less depth. And, the longer the game goes on, the less likely it is to pull off an upset. Additionally, home-and-homes are nearly unheard of: FCS teams almost exclusively have to play on the road, making their wins even more impressive.

Football mid-majors are hoping to go the way of the basketball mid-majors: teams that are not to be taken lightly, not to be considered cupcakes and not to be overlooked.

The best QB in college ball

Heading into the season, some NFL analysts projected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck as a top five pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Through three weeks, Luck has shown he's clearly one of the best in the college game, and may be the consensus No. 1 pick by April.

He was nearly perfect in the Cardinal's season opening 52-17 rout of FCS Sacramento State, finishing 17-for-23 for 316 yards and four touchdowns.

In Week 2, he led Stanford to a 35-0 win over UCLA, completing just 45.8 percent of his passes, but still maintaining a high quarterback rating with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

But on Saturday, Luck stepped his game up in a big way. In a game some thought would be close, Luck and the Cardinal smashed visiting Wake Forest 68-24. Luck again finished 17-for-23, tallying 207 yards and four passing touchdowns.

He also scampered 52 yards for a cross-field touchdown for good measure, finishing the day with three carries for 69 yards.

His quarterback rating stands at 192.3, good for fourth in the nation. He's second in the country in passing touchdowns, and is completing 64.3 percent of his passes. Only seven other passers have thrown as many attempts (70) without throwing one interception.

And at no time has he looked incapable of leading a team at the next level, unlike Washington quarterback and projected first-rounder Jake Locker. Locker finished 4-for-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a blowout home loss to Nebraska.

Week 3 bets

A relatively quiet this week after the first two. Last week, we finished 8-7-0 for -2.96 units, bringing our year to date total to 19-18-0 for +0.10 units. Not good enough. Let's get to this week.

A slightly different strategy this week. I'm parlaying all of my bets with Penn State, Alabama and Stanford's moneylines, and adding West Virginia's moneyline to some of those bets. It'll be clear in a minute.

1. Utah -1700 ML + Penn State -1600 ML + Alabama -1900 ML + Stanford -800 ML -- 4.52u to win 1.5u
   
2. Purdue -670 ML + those three -- 3.36u to win 1.5u
   
3. Indiana -550 ML + those three -- 2.05u to win 1u
   
4. Wisconsin -500 ML + those three -- 1.96u to win 1u
   
5. Navy -145 ML + those three + West Virginia -380 ML -- 1.78u to win 3u
   
6. California -2.5 + those four -- 1.48u to win 3u
   
7. USC -11.5 + those four -- 1.48u to win 3u
   
8. Hawaii +13 + those four -- 1.48u to win 3u

Total risk: 19 units to win 17 units.

Saturday morning edit: Adding a few more reduced juice straight plays and a teaser, below.

1. West Virginia-Maryland OVER 43.5 -- 2.1u to win 2u
2. Utah State +3.5 -- 1.58u to win 1.5u
3. Notre Dame +3.5 -- 1.12u to win 1u
4. Temple +6 -- 1.05u to win 1u
5. LSU -1.5 / Iowa +7.5 -- 1u to win 1u

Additional 6.85 units risked to win 6.5 units. I love reduced juice.

WVU's Hogan suspended indefinitely

West Virginia cornerback Brandon Hogan, considered one of the team's top NFL talents, has been suspended indefinitely from the team following a DUI arrest early Sunday morning.

It's the latest in a long line of incidents involving Hogan. According to ESPN.com's Big East reporter Brian Bennett, "Hogan has also been in and out of Stewart's doghouse and spent much of this spring running stairs instead of practicing for being out of shape, skipping classes and receiving a citation for disorderly conduct and public urination."

Hogan will miss Saturday's game against Maryland, and the Mountaineers will certainly miss him for much longer than that.

CBS Sports rated Hogan a mid-second round pick in its 2011 NFL mock draft, ranking him the seventh-best cornerback prospect.

Walter Football ranked him as the No. 11 cornerback in the nation.

The senior had become a leader on the West Virginia squad, and was named to the Jim Thorpe Award watch list in the preseason, awarded after the season to the top defensive back.

As a junior, Hogan, Sports Illustrated named Hogan honorable mention All-American. He was an All-Conference first-team selection, starting every game and finishing the season with 74 tackles. He led the team in pass breakups (11) and was one of the Big East's best pass defenders.

Without him, head coach Bill Stewart will have to find his replacement. Stewart named three possibilities: senior Brantwon Bowser, sophomore Pat Miller or redshirt freshman Broderick Jenkins.

Who misses their QB the most?

It took just two games for some teams to start showing how much they missed last year's starting quarterback.

A new starting quarterback is one of the toughest adjustments a team must make. It's incredibly important to groom a future quarterback and give him snaps in blowout situations to gain him in-game experience.

So, who's struggling so far?

Florida without Tim Tebow (pictured) -- The Gators are 2-0 and have outscored opponents 72-26 through eight quarters. That's hardly struggling for some, but for Florida, Tebow made all the difference. New quarterback John Brantley and the Gators fumbled eight times in the season opener against Miami (OH), and turned it on late for a seemingly comfortable win. Last week, Brantley completed just 58 percent of his passes for 172 yards in a win over South Florida.

Texas without Colt McCoy -- Another 2-0 team, the Longhorns have struggled more than their record indicates. New quarterback Garrett Gilbert got his first snaps last year in the National Championship when McCoy went down with an injury, but this year is his first as a starter. Through two games against Rice and Wyoming, Gilbert has just one touchdown pass, as the Longhorns have had to rely heavily on their running game. A 34-17 win over Rice may not have been if it wasn't for running back Tre' Newton's outstanding three-touchdown performance.

Cincinnati without Tony Pike -- Last year, there didn't seem to be much of a dropoff between Pike, the starter, and Zach Collaros, the backup. Pike is now in the NFL and it's the Collaros show. In his first real test this year, Collaros couldn't get the Bearcats clicking in a 28-14 road loss to Fresno State. A Week 2 win over FCS Indiana State wasn't enough to shake the feeling that the Week 1 outcome could have been differently with Pike at the helm.

Others receiving consideration: Penn State's Daryll Clark, Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, Kansas' Todd Reesing, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford.

Week 2 unfriendly to ACC

It was not a good week for the ACC.

With several marquee games on the slate, the last thing ACC teams needed was to lay an egg. And an egg they laid.

First, No. 15 Georgia Tech lost on the road to a Kansas team that had just lost to FCS North Dakota State 6-3 in the previous week. The Yellow Jackets didn't necessarily need the win, but they certainly needed not to lose. Tech outgained Kansas by 1.6 yards per play and still lost the game, 28-25.

Next No. 17 Florida State visited Norman, Oklahoma to take on the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners. The Seminoles were a touchdown underdog, and never really kept it competitive. After a 7-7 tie in the middle of the first quarter, Oklahoma rattled off five straight touchdowns to blow the game up 41-7. Florida State fought back a bit, but ultimately lost 47-17 in a game that exposed that the Seminoles are not as good as everyone had hoped after a Week 1 thumping of FCS Samford.

No. 12 Miami (FL) traveled to one of college football's most hostile environments, Columbus, Ohio, to face the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. A week after Miami quarterback Jacory Harris looked stellar against FCS Florida A&M, Harris tossed four interceptions to a stingy Buckeyes defense. Miami simply couldn't keep up with Ohio State, which appeared to be on a more elite level than the Hurricanes in the 36-24 win.

Without a doubt, the most embarrassing loss of the day belonged to No. 13 Virginia Tech, coming off a heartbreaking loss to No. 3 Boise State in Week 1. Everyone assumed the Hokies would take out their frustrations on FCS James Madison, but Virginia Tech looked sloppy all game, turning the ball over three times and forcing none. James Madison left Blacksburg, Virginia with a 21-16 win, the most shocking Hokies loss in several years.

One game that could have partially salvaged the week was Virginia at No. 16 USC. The Cavaliers hung all game with Southern Cal, but trailed 14-7 at the half. After trading field goals in the fourth quarter, USC barely escaped with the 17-14 win, despite UVA outgaining them and arguably outplaying them.

What we know after Week 2

Two weeks into the college football season, and we already know a ton more than we did to start the season.

1. USC is not to be trusted. The Trojans, banned from winning the Pac-10 and participating in a bowl game this year are struggling under head coach Lane Kiffin. USC barely beat visiting Virginia at home after escaping Hawaii with a close win in Week 1. The Trojans hit the road again for Week 3 at Minnesota (1-1), and are again nearly two touchdown favorites. Hmm...

2. Miami (FL) is good, not great. The Hurricanes hung fairly close with Ohio State in the end, losing 36-24 in Columbus, Ohio. But The U is clearly not on the same level as the Buckeyes. Of course, Ohio State may very well end up playing for a National Championship this fall, whereas Miami would be overachieving with an Orange Bowl appearance. The Canes travel to Pittsburgh this week for an intriguing Week 3 matchup that should tell us even more.

3. Michigan is playing its best football since 2007. But it may not last. Head coach Rich Rodriguez is absolutely running quarterback Denard Robinson into the ground. In two games, Robinson has 57 carries for 455 yards and three touchdowns. Great numbers, but ones that a quarterback in that system won't be able to sustain all season. One injury to Robinson and Michigan may be a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team again.

4. Oregon could be a National Championship-caliber team. The Ducks crushed New Mexico 72-0 in Week 1, and beat Tennessee 48-13 in Week 2. With USC out of the picture in the Pac-10, the Ducks are the clear favorites to win the conference and play in a BCS game. But keep playing like this, and Oregon will be playing for a National Championship. Strength of schedule is clearly no concern for this team.

5. Virginia Tech is having a nightmare but can't wake up. The last time the Hokies were 0-2 was 1995. A 21-16 loss to FCS James Madison was an awful way to bounce back from a Week 1 loss to Boise State. Now, Virginia Tech faces East Carolina (2-0), which won't be an easy win, either.

Week 2 bets

Week 1 was pretty good to us. We finished 11-11-0, but rather than losing money on eating juice, our strategy paid off. We ended up +2.96 units, which was actually a bit disappointing in the end because heading into the Labor Day games, we were up +5.76 units. Still, a winning week is a winning week, and one I'll gladly take.

This week, we're using the same strategy, just with different teams. After much consideration, I'm going with Baylor, USC and Kentucky's moneylines. Baylor is at home against Buffalo, USC is at home against Virginia and Kentucky is at home against Western Kentucky.

Baylor's back, with QB Robert Griffin finally healthy, and Buffalo is under a new head coach now that Turner Gill is in Kansas. USC is finally at home, and while it may not be the USC team we're used to seeing, Virginia coach Mike London's first trip cross-country won't end with a victory. Kentucky doesn't need to be particularly competitive to beat in-state foe Western Kentucky, one of the five worst teams in FBS.

1. Morgan State +38.5 (-120) + Baylor -700 ML + USC -1250 ML + Kentucky -2500 ML -- 2.7u to win 3.65u
2. Alabama -475 ML + those three -- 3.61u to win 2u
3. Texas A&M -1200 ML + those three -- 1.8u to win .7u
4. Florida -700 ML + those three -- 1.5u to win .7u
   
5. Washington -500 ML + those three -- 1.4u to win .76u
6. Georgia Tech -570 ML + those three -- 1.4u to win .72u
   
7. Texas -27.5 (-130) + those three -- 1.2u to win 1.53u
8. Iowa State +14.5 (-130) + those three -- 1.2u to win 1.53u
9. Florida State +7.5 (-130) + those three -- 1.1u to win 1.4u
10. Ohio State -330 ML + those three -- 1.1u to win .74u
    
11. Ole Miss -20.5 + those three -- 1u to win 1.45u
12. Oklahoma State -525 ML + those three -- 1u to win .53u
13. West Virginia -490 ML + those three -- .93u to win .51u
14. California -370 ML + those three -- .8u to win .5u
15. Tennessee +14.5 (-170) + those three -- .7u to win .73u
    

Total risk: 21.44 units to win 17.44 units.

Marquee matchups in Week 2

In Week 1, three games pitted top 25 teams against each other. All three were exciting to watch: Boise State came back to beat Virginia Tech with less than a minute left in the game. UNC staged a comeback after halftime but ultimately fell short. And TCU lived up to the hype and beat Oregon State.

On Saturday, you may not get off the couch all day. Get your chores done early, because Florida State plays Oklahoma at 3:30 p.m., and Ohio State hosts Miami (FL) in the same time slot. And at 7 p.m., Penn State travels to Alabama for a Big Ten/SEC showdown.

Las Vegas has spoken: Ohio State is a nine-point favorite over Miami, Oklahoma is favored by eight points, and Alabama is a 10.5-point favorite.

OHIO STATE - MIAMI (FL) Quarterbacks Terrelle Pryor (OSU) and Jacory Harris (UM) battle for top dog in this matchup. Both were practically perfect in their season openers, as both teams combined for 90-7 wins over their opponents.

OKLAHOMA - FLORIDA STATE Oklahoma underwhelmed, while Florida State overwhelmed in Week 1. Yet Oklahoma is still one of the favorites to emerge from the Big 12, while Florida State would be lucky to end up in the Orange Bowl. Sooners running back DeMarco Murray ran for more yards in Week 1 than FSU quarterback Christian Ponder threw for, yet both offenses are capable of putting up flurries of scoring without batting an eyelash.

ALABAMA - PENN STATE
The premier game of Saturday night, this game has both stud and dud potential. Running back Trent Richardson appears as viable an option as Heisman Trophy rusher Mark Ingram, who's sidelined with an injury. Penn State true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden looked great against FCS Youngstown State, but may struggle against one of the nation's top defenses.

Week 1 winners and losers

There are 120 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in the NCAA. Roughly half of them were winners and half of them were losers in Week 1, but some were bigger winners, and some were bigger losers. Here's a recap:

WINNERS

1. LSU - The Tigers took advantage of a distracted UNC squad, beating the Tar Heels 30-24 in the Chick Fil-A game in Atlanta. The point spread on this game moved wildly, but LSU got out to an early 30-10 lead. Though UNC nearly completed the comeback, the Tigers held on and escaped with a much-needed win.
   
2. Oklahoma State - Though the Cowboys were favored to beat visiting Washington State by a couple of touchdowns, Oklahoma State pummeled the Cougars by nearly 50 points. An impressive margin that nobody had expected, even if the overall outcome was predictable.
3. Utah - The Utes really benefited from playing on Thursday night. Not only do they get a long week to prepare for UNLV, but Utah also won 27-24 in an overtime game that was essentially a coinflip. They beat a ranked Pitt team that could still challenge for a Big East title.
   
4. Arizona - The Wildcats beat an overmatched Toledo team on the road in Week 1. It wasn't the toughest test, but Arizona certainly could have looked rusty in its first game action in more than nine months. Yet the Wildcats took care of business in a 41-2 romp.
   
5. Michigan - The seat under head coach Rich Rodriguez is undeniably warm, but the Wolverines' 30-10 Week 1 win over UConn has silenced critics -- for this week, anyway. Next, Michigan travels to rival Notre Dame. A lopsided loss would get that seat nice and toasty again.
   

LOSERS

1. Ole Miss - Entering the game as 27-point favorites, Mississippi barely had to worry about Jacksonville State. At the half, the Rebels led 31-10, but they eased up in the second half and let Jacksonville State get back in it. Two overtimes later, the Gamecocks went for the two-point conversion and made it, and Jacksonville State left with a 49-48 double overtime win.
   
2. Oklahoma - The Sooners are the only losers this week who actually won their game. Many expected Oklahoma to blow Utah State out, but instead it was a dangerously close 31-24 win. For a team that many (including myself) thought would be competing for a National Championship this year, that's not a good way to start the season.
   
3. Navy - Navy gambled and lost on what could have been an amazing last-second win for the Midshipmen against Maryland in Baltimore. On 4th-and-1, Navy went for it from the Maryland 1-yard line and were held out of the end zone. It was a long drive back to Annapolis, Maryland for the Mids that night.
   
4. Washington - The Huskies led BYU 17-13 at halftime on the road, but sputtered in the second half. Considered a darkhorse heading into the season, Washington could have used a nice, high-profile win for their resume, but instead left a 23-17 loser.
   
5. New Mexico - No team in FBS looked worse than New Mexico, who lost 72-0 to Oregon. The Lobos were outgained 720-107 total, including 365-29 on the ground. New Mexico also allowed two punts to be returned for touchdowns to the same specialist. Ouch.
   

Week 1 game balls

Every week, someone steps up and seemingly wills his team to victory. In the locker room, these guys are awarded the game ball for an outstanding performance. But we're not in the locker room.

Instead, I'm handing out my own game balls, even though these guys have enough balls already.

North Carolina QB TJ Yates, who finished 28-for-46 for 412 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-24 loss to LSU. Yates single-handedly kept UNC afloat, leading a late comeback that ultimately fell short. But that wasn't Yates' fault. He accounted for 412 of the team's 436 yards, and found a new favorite target...

North Carolina WR Jheranie Boyd. He finished with six catches for 221 yards and a touchdown, but that touchdown was a 97-yarder in the fourth quarter that nearly swung the momentum in the Heels' favor.

Oklahoma State RB Kendall Hunter ran 21 times for 257 yards and four touchdowns in a 65-17 stomping of visiting Washington State. Wazzu was a 16-point underdog, but thanks to Hunter's performance, the Cowboys won by nearly 50 points. Hunter broke off runs of 66, 39, 22, 20, 18 and 17 yards, so it's not like most of his numbers came off one play.

Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas, another Big 12 running back, shares the limelight after a stellar Week 1 performance. Thomas carried 28 times for 234 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-22 win over UCLA.

TCU RB Ed Wesley, who was incredibly consistent at breaking off sizable runs in a 30-21 win over Oregon State. Wesley ran 17 times for 134 yards and one touchdown, but his longest run was 16 yards -- 10 of his 17 total rushes were for seven yards or more.

Maryland S Kenny Tate, whose last tackle was his biggest. Tate stuffed Navy QB Ricky Dobbs on the goal line when the Mids went for the win on 4th-and-1 from the Maryland 1-yard line. Maryland won 17-14, and Tate finished with 12 tackles (nine solo), two of which came for a loss.

Lastly, a joint game ball to Utah WRs DeVonte Christopher and Jereme Brooks. Brooks had two first-half touchdowns and finished with five receptions for 87 yards and two scores, while Christopher finished with eight catches for 155 yards and one touchdown, a huge 61-yarder in the fourth quarter.

Terps top Navy in thrilling finish

It came down to a single play.

After a tremendous day of running the ball, Navy elected to go for the win on 4th-and-1 from the Maryland 1-yard line. Cross the plane and the Midshipmen would have almost certainly won 21-17. Get stuffed, the Terps take over at their own goal line and the game is over.

Maryland safety Kenny Tate found Mids quarterback Ricky Dobbs, held him out of the end zone and nearly single-handedly secured the Maryland win.

Despite 412 yards rushing, the most allowed in head coach Ralph Friedgen’s 10-year tenure, Navy went home a loser. The Mids outgained Maryland by 214 yards, nearly doubled the Terps in time of possession and held them to just 11 yards passing all day.

Yet Maryland, despite a vanilla offense for the second quarter and beyond, stepped up defensively when the game was on the line, in front of a crowd of nearly 70,000 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.

The Terps denied Navy from reaching the end zone several times, forcing two key fumbles: one at Maryland's 1-yard line in the second quarter, the other at Maryland's 4-yard line in the third. Thanks to another timely fumble, Navy ended a possession on the Maryland 7-yard line without a field goal just before halftime.

So, what can Terp fans take away from the game?

• The offensive line is much improved. Thanks to the line, Maryland averaged 7.7 yards per rush and quarterback Jamarr Robinson was sacked just once.
  
• Running backs Da'Rel Scott and Davin Meggett continue to get better and better, and Robinson makes the Terps' running attack potentially lethal. Meggett broke out a 67-yard rush in the first quarter and finished the game with eight carries for 105 yards and a touchdown. Scott had 10 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown, and Robinson ran 12 times for 91 yards, breaking out runs of 26 and 27 yards.
• Robinson's arm continues to look like an 8-year old trying to operate a machine gun. Powerful but completely erratic, which led to Friedgen and offensive coordinator James Franklin keeping him on a short leash. That would explain his lack of passing yards and attempts.
  
• The coaching staff got really lucky. No discredit to the players, but the coaching staff appeared to be giving the game away multiple times. Robinson was subbed out at a critical point, and backup quarterback Danny O'Brien fumbled on the first snap, turning the ball over in the fourth quarter. Later, Friedgen let 12 seconds run off the block with under a minute left in the game, when it was clear that if Navy scored, Maryland was going to need every last second it could use to stage one more drive to tie the game.
• Punter Travis Baltz's performance was huge. Not only did he attempt (and make) his first-ever college field goal, but he also booted three punts with a 53.0 yard average. He placed one inside the 20-yard line and kicked another one 61 yards.
  

The play of the game, besides Tate stuffing Dobbs at the end, was undoubtedly Moten's leapfrog forced fumble. It was literally perfect timing. Enjoy.

An FCS upset in Week 1

Last season, Division I-AA (now FCS) power Villanova upset Division I-A (now FBS) member Temple in a 27-24 late comeback win.

It didn't get the hype that Appalachian State received after beating Michigan in 2007, namely because it was a much lower-profile win.

But it served as a wake-up call to Temple, who led 24-14 with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The Owls, embarrassed, went on to lose 31-6 to Penn State in the next week before rattling off nine straight wins and earning a bid in the EagleBank Bowl against UCLA.

It was the start of a great season for Villanova, who finished with a 14-1 record and won the FCS Championship.

Now, the two Philadelphia colleges face off again, and Temple's out for revenge. That won't come easy, though. I actually think Villanova will win this game outright for the second straight year.

Temple is a solid team, returning 16 starters, including quarterback Chester Stewart and running backs Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown. On defense, the Owls return just three of their top six tacklers from last season, though.

Meanwhile, Villanova returns eight on offense and seven on defense. However, one of those is superstar playmaker Matt Szczur (no idea on pronunciation), who simply makes things happen for the Wildcats. Last year, he finished with 108 carries for 813 yards, 51 receptions for 610 yards and 14 total touchdowns, and added a 27-yard per kick return average.

Offensively, he's just one of many threats for Villanova. Quarterback Chris Whitney and running backs Aaron Ball and Angelo Babbaro also return. All three are seniors and multi-year starters. Szczur, Ball and Babbaro combined for 3,036 yards and 28 touchdowns last year, and that number should continue as most of the offensive line returns.

In the August 23rd FCS coaches poll, Villanova received 22 first-place votes. Montana and Appalachian State received two and four votes, respectively. It's the Wildcats' championship to lose. At least, that's how the rest of the FCS coaches feel.

Look for the 'Cats to give the Owls another scare. I see an exact repeat from last year: Villanova 27, Temple 24.

Week 1 bets

My slate starts clean, at 0-0-0 for +0.00 units for the 2010 season. I have a fairly unique (I think) strategy that has worked well in the past for me. It may be unusual, but it's my thread, so I get to decide what to bet on.

Here's what I'm on for Week 1. It's loaded up way more than I had originally planned to, but when you see an edge, you'd better take it.

All of my plays for Week 1 are 4- or 5-team parlays. Four of the same team, over and over, parlayed with spreads or moneylines that I like. USC, Colorado, Ohio State and Georgia help bring down the juice for all of my lines so that instead of needing to hit ~53% all season, I only need to hit ~40% and I'll still turn a healthy profit.

However, if any of those four lose, I lose all of my bets this week.

1. Nebraska -34.5 (-170) + USC -1400 ML + Colorado -455 ML + Ohio State -8500 ML + Georgia -6000 ML -- 2u to win 2.27u
2. Northwestern -215 ML + those four -- 2u to win 1.94u
   
3. Navy -250 ML + those four -- 2u to win 1.76u
4. Ohio State -27.5 (-130) + USC ML, Colorado ML, Georgia ML -- 1.7u to win 2.3u
5. Army -355 ML + those four -- 1.5u to win 1.09u
6. Western Michigan +23 + those four -- 1.2u to win 1.57u
7. Missouri -465 ML + those four -- 1.2u to win .76u
8. Arizona -13.5 (-150) + those four -- 1u to win 1.24u
9. Florida -34.5 (-120) + those four -- 1u to win 1.47u
10. Washington State +15.5 + those four -- 1u to win 1.57u
11. Washington +127 ML + those four -- .8u to win 1.64u
12. Virginia Tech +113 ML + those four -- .8u to win 1.49u
13. USC/Hawaii UNDER 54 + Colorado ML, Georgia ML, Ohio State ML -- .8u to win 1.12u
14. Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 45.5 + those four -- .7u to win 1.1u
15. Kansas State/UCLA UNDER 45 + those four -- .7u to win 1.1u
16. LSU -165 ML + those four -- .5u to win .58u
17. Minnesota -143 ML + those four -- .5u to win .67u
18. Syracuse/Akron UNDER 42.5 (-120) + those four -- .5u to win .73u
19. Baylor -38.5 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
20. South Carolina State +30 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
21. Jacksonville State +27 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
22. California -28.5 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u

After the games finish this week, I'll tally up my results. If any of those four teams lose, it'll be pretty easy. I'll have a 0-22, -21.5 unit week. Yikes!

Oklahoma underrated at No. 7?

It's difficult to imagine Oklahoma ever really flying under the radar. A perennial top-10 team, the Sooners had a rare disappointing season last year.

Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Sam Bradford was returning for his senior season, and one of his favorite targets, tight end Jermaine Gresham was back. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, one of the nation's most dominant linemen, returned as well.

All in all, a BCS bowl game was well within reason, and things were looking great in Norman.

Then, the injury bug struck: Bradford injured his shoulder and played in just three games, and Gresham missed the entire season due to injury. Williams was forced to play all over the place as his fellow linemen went down with injuries throughout the season.

It was the perfect storm, losing starters for 42 total games and suffering three close losses, and it won't happen again, barring freak accidents.

This year, Oklahoma returns nine offensive starters, including now-seasoned quarterback Landry Jones, one of the nation's top receivers in Ryan Broyles and fifth-year senior running back DeMarco Murray, as well as five defensive starters. Even with last year's lousy results, the Sooners outgained their opponents by 133 yards per game.

With its first test in Week 2 against Florida State, we'll get an early look at how strong the Sooners will be. Below is Oklahoma's schedule.

But first, here's an on-the-record bet: Oklahoma to win the National Championship +1000, 1.5 units to win 15 units.

Date Opponent
Sept. 4 Utah State
Sept. 11 Florida State
Sept. 18 Air Force
Sept. 25 at Cincinnati
Oct. 2 vs. Texas (Dallas, Texas)
Oct. 16 Iowa State
Oct. 23 at Missouri
Oct. 30 Colorado
Nov. 6 at Texas A&M
Nov. 13 Texas Tech
Nov. 20 at Baylor
Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State