Tuesday, September 28, 2010

The best of the undefeateds

Plenty of teams have come out of the woodworks to establish themselves as title contenders this year. So far, 21 teams remain a perfect 4-0 through the first month of the season.

But that list includes teams like Northwestern, whose biggest win is over Vanderbilt, and Kansas State, which holds one good win under its belt (UCLA).

So, who is the best of the unbeaten teams? In no particular order...

NC State -- For a team not considered an ACC Championship contender heading into the season, the Wolfpack have silenced doubters everywhere. Road wins over Central Florida and most recently Georgia Tech (45-28) have people paying attention to NC State. A Week 3 drubbing of Cincinnati added to the hype.

Michigan -- Other teams may hold better wins, but no team needed a 4-0 head start than Michigan. Head coach Rich Rodriguez was on the hot seat coming into the season, but a 20-point win over UConn in Week 1 got the momentum moving in Michigan's favor. The Wolverines followed that up with a win at Notre Dame, and two wins over FCS Massachusetts and a blowout of Bowling Green. In the process, quarterback Denard Robinson has become a frontrunner to win the coveted Heisman Trophy.

Oregon -- There are four Pac-10 teams that are 4-0 right now, but Oregon and Stanford are playing at a different level. The Ducks have scored no fewer than 42 points in each of their four games this season, and now hold road wins over Tennessee and Arizona State. It's why they're the No. 4 team in the country right now.

Stanford -- Quarterback Andrew Luck is the real deal, and he has led Stanford to road wins over UCLA and Notre Dame. He also orchestrated a 68-24 win over Wake Forest in Week 3, exposing the talent difference between them and a middle-of-the-pack BCS conference team.

Auburn -- Some considered Auburn a darkhorse for a National Championship contender prior to the season, and the Tigers have delivered. A road win over Mississippi State led into a thrilling 27-24 win over Clemson, and, most recently, a 35-27 win over No. 12 South Carolina.

Alabama -- A convincing win over No. 22 Penn State (24-3) and a 62-13 beatdown at Duke led into a huge 24-20 road win at No. 15 Arkansas. That last one was big, too, not only for Alabama's National Championship hopes, but for showing its resilience. The Crimson Tide trailed 20-7 late in the third quarter before staging a critical comeback.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Benched Press on the radio

On Friday, WKSR's Wade Neely invited me onto "The Wade Neely Morning Show," which runs Monday through Friday, 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. Eastern time.

Neely hosts a talk show with a sports focus, and had me on to break down Week 4's slate of college football games. I posted this on my other blog, Benched Press, but since the segment was all about college football, thought I'd share it here, too.

I already had something up for Friday, so I saved it for today. Now that the games are finished, you can hear how my predictions did. Enjoy!

Friday, September 24, 2010

Week 4 bets

Week 3 was pretty kind to us, but it could have been even kinder. USC head coach Lane Kiffin blew the cover against Minnesota late, which would have been almost an extra five units coming my way. Anyway, onto a new week.

Week 3 recap
: 9-4-0, +6.98 units
Season recap: 28-22-0, +7.08 units

This week, the teams I'm using in all of my parlays are: UConn, Missouri, Texas, Florida State and TCU. UConn is at home against Buffalo, facing a somewhat must-win game. Mizzou is playing Miami (OH), Texas has UCLA at home, Florida State plays Wake Forest, and TCU travels to SMU tonight.
  1. Stanford -4.5 + UConn -1100 + Mizzou -1100 + Texas -650 + Florida State -1000 + TCU -1000 -- 4.6u to win 10u
  2. Oklahoma -500 ML + those four -- 2.52u to win 2.5u
  3. Maryland -460 ML + those four -- 1.96u to win 2u
  4. Alabama -265 ML + those four -- 1.55u to win 2u
  5. Baylor -300 ML + those four -- 1.44u to win 1.75u
  6. NC State +8 -- 1.1u to win 1u
  7. West Virginia +10 -- 1.1u to win 1u
  8. TCU -18 -- 1.05u to win 1u
  9. Big parlay: TCU + Michigan + Iowa + Florida State + UConn + Mizzou + Oklahoma + Alabama + Stanford -4.5 + Texas + USC + Kansas + Florida + Maryland -- .38u to win 3u
Small card, relatively speaking. Stanford is my pick of the week, so I loaded up on them. Good luck this week.

Total risk: 15.7u to win 24.25u

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Week 4 upsets to watch out for

Every week, a handful of underdogs upset the favorites, not only covering the point spread but winning outright. While it's difficult to pick those winners correctly, it isn't difficult to pinpoint some teams that could cause trouble for other teams.

Here are what I feel are the three likeliest upsets in Week 4:

West Virginia over LSU. WVU is on the road and a 9.5-point underdog. Yet, both teams are undefeated, and LSU won a Week 1 barnburner against UNC, a team slightly worse than the Mountaineers.

WVU is a great value this week, needing to win just 25% of the time to break even. The Mountaineers barely edged in-state rival Marshall 24-21 in Week 2, but beat visiting Maryland handily last week, 31-17.

LSU hasn't truly been pushed to its limits yet, and West Virginia is clearly the best team it's played all year. The Tigers beat a depleted UNC team 30-24 after the Tar Heels suspended several players for misconduct. LSU then beat Vanderbilt, an SEC bottom feeder, and Mississippi State, a respectable win.

With the way West Virginia looked in the first half last Saturday, it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull off a big road win in Baton Rouge.

Upset special No. 2 is NC State, an eight-point underdog to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lost an embarrassing road game to Kansas, then bounced back with a nailbiter win over UNC. But NC State has stealthily flown under the radar with a 3-0 record, beating Central Florida on the road and then taking care of Cincinnati 30-19 at home last week.

Needing to win just 27% of the time to turn a profit, the 3-0 Wolfpack could cause some grief in Georgia.

The biggest longshot that could drop jaws this weekend? Temple, which opened as a 17-point underdog when it travels to play Penn State.

The line has since dropped to 13.5, a pretty significant movement, but probably justified considering how Temple manhandled UConn 30-16 last week. And its moneyline is big enough that Temple only needs to win 20% of the time to profit.

PSU has beaten FCS Youngstown State (yawn) and Kent State (yawn) but got whipped 24-3 against Alabama. Crimson Tide running back Trent Richardson had a monster game against Penn State, carrying the ball 22 times for 144 yards and a touchdown.

Temple's strength is in its running game, too. Running back Bernard Pierce is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season and torched UConn for 169 yards, one rushing and one receiving touchdown last week.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Terps vs. Florida International preview

In its sixth year as an FBS member, Florida International has never beaten a BCS team -- that is, a team from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC.

Now, they head to College Park, Maryland, to try and make history.

So, what are the main storylines for Saturday?

1. Maryland is dinged up. Starting left tackle Justin Gilbert is done for the season with a torn ACL, forcing the Terps to shift the other linemen around like a puzzle to find the next best lineup.

Meanwhile, starting quarterback Jamarr Robinson (shoulder) and backup Danny O'Brien (ankle) are fighting off injury. Head coach Ralph Friedgen has said that both will be healthy enough to play on Saturday, but in the case that either one goes down with injury, true freshman Devin Burns would serve as the backup and potentially burn his redshirt.

2. FIU is looking for its first BCS win. The Golden Panthers have gotten within striking distance twice already this year, falling just short of beating Rutgers (at home) and Texas A&M (on the road). FIU lost 19-14 to Rutgers and 27-20 to Texas A&M. It's pretty clear that Maryland can't simply sleepwalk through this game as if it was against Morgan State again. If FIU doesn't win on Saturday, it'll have its fourth chance to win a game against a BCS team in as many weeks when it travels to Pittsburgh.

3. This is an important game for Maryland. It sounds silly, but it's true. There aren't many more "gimmie" games left on the Terps' schedule, and it could really use a win here. Next week against Duke is much of the same. After next week, Maryland is on the road four out of five weeks, before returning to play Florida State. Getting to 3-1 (and ideally 4-1 after Duke) before a long road trip would be huge for Maryland's bowl bid hopes.

This marks the third time these two teams have played, the first two coming in 2006 and 2007, where Maryland won 14-10 and 26-10, respectively.