Week 10 bets

The last two weeks has been kind of a bummer. We were up nearly 32 units after Week 7, but are down 28 units in the last two weeks. Thanks, West Virginia and Miami (FL). Those two games cost me a boatload. West Virginia didn't deserve to win, despite it being its homecoming game, but Miami should have beaten Virginia in Charlottesville, except starting quarterback Jacory Harris got a concussion in the second quarter. It was all downhill after that.

So we're now 47-46-0, +4.01 units. Not where I wanted to be right now. But I do feel better about this week's bets than I have about the past two weeks, so that's a good sign.

Because I've got a little more time than usual, I'll break down why I like these games, too.

Iowa -800 ML at Indiana -- The Hoosiers are an incredibly one-dimensional team. With no running game, Indiana is forced to pass it to move the ball. Iowa is coming off a blowout win over Michigan State in which the Hawkeyes allowed just 198 yards in the air. Meanwhile, Indiana's pass and rush defenses are worse than Iowa's pass and rush offenses, which should create plenty of scoring opportunities for the Hawkeyes. Lastly, Iowa's only injuries are to two linebackers -- one is out, the other is questionable. Indiana is considerably more banged up, with a tight end, safety and kicker out, and a cornerback (Adrian Burks) questionable. Even starting quarterback Ben Chappell is banged up.

Wisconsin -1200 ML at Purdue -- Purdue's pass offense is abysmal, ranking 115th out of 120 teams. Its running game is considerably better, but ranks 40th in the country -- Wisconsin's run defense is 22nd. The Badgers are coming off a bye week, and have just one injury to a starter. But Purdue is on its third-string quarterback, and has a starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver out for Saturday. Starting cornerback Mike Eargle is questionable for Purdue, too.

Michigan State -2150 ML vs. Minnesota -- Minnesota, like the rest of the teams in my plays, cannot defend the pass or the run, and therefore a Michigan State team frustrated with an embarrassing loss last week, will take it out on the Gophers. Minnesota's banged up, with two starting offensive linemen and a fullback likely out, while Michigan State is healthy as can be.

Florida -550 ML at Vanderbilt -- Of all the games, this is the one that worries me slightly. And it should, as it's the lowest moneyline of all my plays. But here's the reasoning, either way. Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball on Florida's defense. That's not necessarily because Florida has a suffocating defense, but Vandy's offense just isn't very good. Florida got a few of its playmakers back in last week's win over Georgia, including Jeffery Demps, who instantly gives the Gators a playmaker who Vanderbilt can't guard.

Boise State -1300 ML vs. Hawaii -- Boise is coming off 11 days of rest, while Hawaii is traveling to a different time zone on six days rest. While Boise is nicked up here and there, its defense is tenacious, ranking second in run defense and eighth in pass defense. Hawaii has no running game, but has the nation's best passing offense. The Broncos should put up significant points against Hawaii's weaker defense, and Hawaii will find the end zone too, just not nearly as frequently.

Here's the bets:

Ohio -590 ML + Wisconsin -1200 ML + Michigan State -2400 ML + Boise State -1300 ML in all four parlays

Virginia Tech -475 ML + those four -- 10u to win 7.2u
Iowa -850 ML + those four -- 10u to win 5.89u
Maryland +260 ML + those four -- 1.94u to win 8u
Florida -550 ML + those four -- 1.47u to win 1u

Total risk: 23.41u to win 22.09u