Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Week 2 unfriendly to ACC

It was not a good week for the ACC.

With several marquee games on the slate, the last thing ACC teams needed was to lay an egg. And an egg they laid.

First, No. 15 Georgia Tech lost on the road to a Kansas team that had just lost to FCS North Dakota State 6-3 in the previous week. The Yellow Jackets didn't necessarily need the win, but they certainly needed not to lose. Tech outgained Kansas by 1.6 yards per play and still lost the game, 28-25.

Next No. 17 Florida State visited Norman, Oklahoma to take on the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners. The Seminoles were a touchdown underdog, and never really kept it competitive. After a 7-7 tie in the middle of the first quarter, Oklahoma rattled off five straight touchdowns to blow the game up 41-7. Florida State fought back a bit, but ultimately lost 47-17 in a game that exposed that the Seminoles are not as good as everyone had hoped after a Week 1 thumping of FCS Samford.

No. 12 Miami (FL) traveled to one of college football's most hostile environments, Columbus, Ohio, to face the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. A week after Miami quarterback Jacory Harris looked stellar against FCS Florida A&M, Harris tossed four interceptions to a stingy Buckeyes defense. Miami simply couldn't keep up with Ohio State, which appeared to be on a more elite level than the Hurricanes in the 36-24 win.

Without a doubt, the most embarrassing loss of the day belonged to No. 13 Virginia Tech, coming off a heartbreaking loss to No. 3 Boise State in Week 1. Everyone assumed the Hokies would take out their frustrations on FCS James Madison, but Virginia Tech looked sloppy all game, turning the ball over three times and forcing none. James Madison left Blacksburg, Virginia with a 21-16 win, the most shocking Hokies loss in several years.

One game that could have partially salvaged the week was Virginia at No. 16 USC. The Cavaliers hung all game with Southern Cal, but trailed 14-7 at the half. After trading field goals in the fourth quarter, USC barely escaped with the 17-14 win, despite UVA outgaining them and arguably outplaying them.

Monday, September 13, 2010

What we know after Week 2

Two weeks into the college football season, and we already know a ton more than we did to start the season.

1. USC is not to be trusted. The Trojans, banned from winning the Pac-10 and participating in a bowl game this year are struggling under head coach Lane Kiffin. USC barely beat visiting Virginia at home after escaping Hawaii with a close win in Week 1. The Trojans hit the road again for Week 3 at Minnesota (1-1), and are again nearly two touchdown favorites. Hmm...

2. Miami (FL) is good, not great. The Hurricanes hung fairly close with Ohio State in the end, losing 36-24 in Columbus, Ohio. But The U is clearly not on the same level as the Buckeyes. Of course, Ohio State may very well end up playing for a National Championship this fall, whereas Miami would be overachieving with an Orange Bowl appearance. The Canes travel to Pittsburgh this week for an intriguing Week 3 matchup that should tell us even more.

3. Michigan is playing its best football since 2007. But it may not last. Head coach Rich Rodriguez is absolutely running quarterback Denard Robinson into the ground. In two games, Robinson has 57 carries for 455 yards and three touchdowns. Great numbers, but ones that a quarterback in that system won't be able to sustain all season. One injury to Robinson and Michigan may be a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team again.

4. Oregon could be a National Championship-caliber team. The Ducks crushed New Mexico 72-0 in Week 1, and beat Tennessee 48-13 in Week 2. With USC out of the picture in the Pac-10, the Ducks are the clear favorites to win the conference and play in a BCS game. But keep playing like this, and Oregon will be playing for a National Championship. Strength of schedule is clearly no concern for this team.

5. Virginia Tech is having a nightmare but can't wake up. The last time the Hokies were 0-2 was 1995. A 21-16 loss to FCS James Madison was an awful way to bounce back from a Week 1 loss to Boise State. Now, Virginia Tech faces East Carolina (2-0), which won't be an easy win, either.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Week 2 bets

Week 1 was pretty good to us. We finished 11-11-0, but rather than losing money on eating juice, our strategy paid off. We ended up +2.96 units, which was actually a bit disappointing in the end because heading into the Labor Day games, we were up +5.76 units. Still, a winning week is a winning week, and one I'll gladly take.

This week, we're using the same strategy, just with different teams. After much consideration, I'm going with Baylor, USC and Kentucky's moneylines. Baylor is at home against Buffalo, USC is at home against Virginia and Kentucky is at home against Western Kentucky.

Baylor's back, with QB Robert Griffin finally healthy, and Buffalo is under a new head coach now that Turner Gill is in Kansas. USC is finally at home, and while it may not be the USC team we're used to seeing, Virginia coach Mike London's first trip cross-country won't end with a victory. Kentucky doesn't need to be particularly competitive to beat in-state foe Western Kentucky, one of the five worst teams in FBS.
  1. Morgan State +38.5 (-120) + Baylor -700 ML + USC -1250 ML + Kentucky -2500 ML -- 2.7u to win 3.65u
  2. Alabama -475 ML + those three -- 3.61u to win 2u
  3. Texas A&M -1200 ML + those three -- 1.8u to win .7u
  4. Florida -700 ML + those three -- 1.5u to win .7u
  5. Washington -500 ML + those three -- 1.4u to win .76u
  6. Georgia Tech -570 ML + those three -- 1.4u to win .72u
  7. Texas -27.5 (-130) + those three -- 1.2u to win 1.53u
  8. Iowa State +14.5 (-130) + those three -- 1.2u to win 1.53u
  9. Florida State +7.5 (-130) + those three -- 1.1u to win 1.4u
  10. Ohio State -330 ML + those three -- 1.1u to win .74u
  11. Ole Miss -20.5 + those three -- 1u to win 1.45u
  12. Oklahoma State -525 ML + those three -- 1u to win .53u
  13. West Virginia -490 ML + those three -- .93u to win .51u
  14. California -370 ML + those three -- .8u to win .5u
  15. Tennessee +14.5 (-170) + those three -- .7u to win .73u
Total risk: 21.44 units to win 17.44 units.

Marquee matchups in Week 2

In Week 1, three games pitted top 25 teams against each other. All three were exciting to watch: Boise State came back to beat Virginia Tech with less than a minute left in the game. UNC staged a comeback after halftime but ultimately fell short. And TCU lived up to the hype and beat Oregon State.

On Saturday, you may not get off the couch all day. Get your chores done early, because Florida State plays Oklahoma at 3:30 p.m., and Ohio State hosts Miami (FL) in the same time slot. And at 7 p.m., Penn State travels to Alabama for a Big Ten/SEC showdown.

Las Vegas has spoken: Ohio State is a nine-point favorite over Miami, Oklahoma is favored by eight points, and Alabama is a 10.5-point favorite.

OHIO STATE - MIAMI (FL) Quarterbacks Terrelle Pryor (OSU) and Jacory Harris (UM) battle for top dog in this matchup. Both were practically perfect in their season openers, as both teams combined for 90-7 wins over their opponents.

OKLAHOMA - FLORIDA STATE Oklahoma underwhelmed, while Florida State overwhelmed in Week 1. Yet Oklahoma is still one of the favorites to emerge from the Big 12, while Florida State would be lucky to end up in the Orange Bowl. Sooners running back DeMarco Murray ran for more yards in Week 1 than FSU quarterback Christian Ponder threw for, yet both offenses are capable of putting up flurries of scoring without batting an eyelash.

ALABAMA - PENN STATE
The premier game of Saturday night, this game has both stud and dud potential. Running back Trent Richardson appears as viable an option as Heisman Trophy rusher Mark Ingram, who's sidelined with an injury. Penn State true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden looked great against FCS Youngstown State, but may struggle against one of the nation's top defenses.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Week 1 winners and losers

There are 120 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in the NCAA. Roughly half of them were winners and half of them were losers in Week 1, but some were bigger winners, and some were bigger losers. Here's a recap:

WINNERS
  1. LSU - The Tigers took advantage of a distracted UNC squad, beating the Tar Heels 30-24 in the Chick Fil-A game in Atlanta. The point spread on this game moved wildly, but LSU got out to an early 30-10 lead. Though UNC nearly completed the comeback, the Tigers held on and escaped with a much-needed win.
  2. Oklahoma State - Though the Cowboys were favored to beat visiting Washington State by a couple of touchdowns, Oklahoma State pummeled the Cougars by nearly 50 points. An impressive margin that nobody had expected, even if the overall outcome was predictable.
  3. Utah - The Utes really benefited from playing on Thursday night. Not only do they get a long week to prepare for UNLV, but Utah also won 27-24 in an overtime game that was essentially a coinflip. They beat a ranked Pitt team that could still challenge for a Big East title.
  4. Arizona - The Wildcats beat an overmatched Toledo team on the road in Week 1. It wasn't the toughest test, but Arizona certainly could have looked rusty in its first game action in more than nine months. Yet the Wildcats took care of business in a 41-2 romp.
  5. Michigan - The seat under head coach Rich Rodriguez is undeniably warm, but the Wolverines' 30-10 Week 1 win over UConn has silenced critics -- for this week, anyway. Next, Michigan travels to rival Notre Dame. A lopsided loss would get that seat nice and toasty again.
LOSERS
  1. Ole Miss - Entering the game as 27-point favorites, Mississippi barely had to worry about Jacksonville State. At the half, the Rebels led 31-10, but they eased up in the second half and let Jacksonville State get back in it. Two overtimes later, the Gamecocks went for the two-point conversion and made it, and Jacksonville State left with a 49-48 double overtime win.
  2. Oklahoma - The Sooners are the only losers this week who actually won their game. Many expected Oklahoma to blow Utah State out, but instead it was a dangerously close 31-24 win. For a team that many (including myself) thought would be competing for a National Championship this year, that's not a good way to start the season.
  3. Navy - Navy gambled and lost on what could have been an amazing last-second win for the Midshipmen against Maryland in Baltimore. On 4th-and-1, Navy went for it from the Maryland 1-yard line and were held out of the end zone. It was a long drive back to Annapolis, Maryland for the Mids that night.
  4. Washington - The Huskies led BYU 17-13 at halftime on the road, but sputtered in the second half. Considered a darkhorse heading into the season, Washington could have used a nice, high-profile win for their resume, but instead left a 23-17 loser.
  5. New Mexico - No team in FBS looked worse than New Mexico, who lost 72-0 to Oregon. The Lobos were outgained 720-107 total, including 365-29 on the ground. New Mexico also allowed two punts to be returned for touchdowns to the same specialist. Ouch.