Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Week 1 game balls

Every week, someone steps up and seemingly wills his team to victory. In the locker room, these guys are awarded the game ball for an outstanding performance. But we're not in the locker room.

Instead, I'm handing out my own game balls, even though these guys have enough balls already.

North Carolina QB TJ Yates, who finished 28-for-46 for 412 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-24 loss to LSU. Yates single-handedly kept UNC afloat, leading a late comeback that ultimately fell short. But that wasn't Yates' fault. He accounted for 412 of the team's 436 yards, and found a new favorite target...

North Carolina WR Jheranie Boyd. He finished with six catches for 221 yards and a touchdown, but that touchdown was a 97-yarder in the fourth quarter that nearly swung the momentum in the Heels' favor.

Oklahoma State RB Kendall Hunter ran 21 times for 257 yards and four touchdowns in a 65-17 stomping of visiting Washington State. Wazzu was a 16-point underdog, but thanks to Hunter's performance, the Cowboys won by nearly 50 points. Hunter broke off runs of 66, 39, 22, 20, 18 and 17 yards, so it's not like most of his numbers came off one play.

Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas, another Big 12 running back, shares the limelight after a stellar Week 1 performance. Thomas carried 28 times for 234 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-22 win over UCLA.

TCU RB Ed Wesley, who was incredibly consistent at breaking off sizable runs in a 30-21 win over Oregon State. Wesley ran 17 times for 134 yards and one touchdown, but his longest run was 16 yards -- 10 of his 17 total rushes were for seven yards or more.

Maryland S Kenny Tate, whose last tackle was his biggest. Tate stuffed Navy QB Ricky Dobbs on the goal line when the Mids went for the win on 4th-and-1 from the Maryland 1-yard line. Maryland won 17-14, and Tate finished with 12 tackles (nine solo), two of which came for a loss.

Lastly, a joint game ball to Utah WRs DeVonte Christopher and Jereme Brooks. Brooks had two first-half touchdowns and finished with five receptions for 87 yards and two scores, while Christopher finished with eight catches for 155 yards and one touchdown, a huge 61-yarder in the fourth quarter.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Terps top Navy in thrilling finish

It came down to a single play.

After a tremendous day of running the ball, Navy elected to go for the win on 4th-and-1 from the Maryland 1-yard line. Cross the plane and the Midshipmen would have almost certainly won 21-17. Get stuffed, the Terps take over at their own goal line and the game is over.

Maryland safety Kenny Tate found Mids quarterback Ricky Dobbs, held him out of the end zone and nearly single-handedly secured the Maryland win.

Despite 412 yards rushing, the most allowed in head coach Ralph Friedgen’s 10-year tenure, Navy went home a loser. The Mids outgained Maryland by 214 yards, nearly doubled the Terps in time of possession and held them to just 11 yards passing all day.

Yet Maryland, despite a vanilla offense for the second quarter and beyond, stepped up defensively when the game was on the line, in front of a crowd of nearly 70,000 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.

The Terps denied Navy from reaching the end zone several times, forcing two key fumbles: one at Maryland's 1-yard line in the second quarter, the other at Maryland's 4-yard line in the third. Thanks to another timely fumble, Navy ended a possession on the Maryland 7-yard line without a field goal just before halftime.

So, what can Terp fans take away from the game?
  • The offensive line is much improved. Thanks to the line, Maryland averaged 7.7 yards per rush and quarterback Jamarr Robinson was sacked just once.
  • Running backs Da'Rel Scott and Davin Meggett continue to get better and better, and Robinson makes the Terps' running attack potentially lethal. Meggett broke out a 67-yard rush in the first quarter and finished the game with eight carries for 105 yards and a touchdown. Scott had 10 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown, and Robinson ran 12 times for 91 yards, breaking out runs of 26 and 27 yards.
  • Robinson's arm continues to look like an 8-year old trying to operate a machine gun. Powerful but completely erratic, which led to Friedgen and offensive coordinator James Franklin keeping him on a short leash. That would explain his lack of passing yards and attempts.
  • The coaching staff got really lucky. No discredit to the players, but the coaching staff appeared to be giving the game away multiple times. Robinson was subbed out at a critical point, and backup quarterback Danny O'Brien fumbled on the first snap, turning the ball over in the fourth quarter. Later, Friedgen let 12 seconds run off the block with under a minute left in the game, when it was clear that if Navy scored, Maryland was going to need every last second it could use to stage one more drive to tie the game.
  • Punter Travis Baltz's performance was huge. Not only did he attempt (and make) his first-ever college field goal, but he also booted three punts with a 53.0 yard average. He placed one inside the 20-yard line and kicked another one 61 yards.
The play of the game, besides Tate stuffing Dobbs at the end, was undoubtedly Moten's leapfrog forced fumble. It was literally perfect timing. Enjoy.


Friday, September 3, 2010

An FCS upset in Week 1

Last season, Division I-AA (now FCS) power Villanova upset Division I-A (now FBS) member Temple in a 27-24 late comeback win.

It didn't get the hype that Appalachian State received after beating Michigan in 2007, namely because it was a much lower-profile win.

But it served as a wake-up call to Temple, who led 24-14 with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The Owls, embarrassed, went on to lose 31-6 to Penn State in the next week before rattling off nine straight wins and earning a bid in the EagleBank Bowl against UCLA.

It was the start of a great season for Villanova, who finished with a 14-1 record and won the FCS Championship.

Now, the two Philadelphia colleges face off again, and Temple's out for revenge. That won't come easy, though. I actually think Villanova will win this game outright for the second straight year.

Temple is a solid team, returning 16 starters, including quarterback Chester Stewart and running backs Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown. On defense, the Owls return just three of their top six tacklers from last season, though.

Meanwhile, Villanova returns eight on offense and seven on defense. However, one of those is superstar playmaker Matt Szczur (no idea on pronunciation), who simply makes things happen for the Wildcats. Last year, he finished with 108 carries for 813 yards, 51 receptions for 610 yards and 14 total touchdowns, and added a 27-yard per kick return average.

Offensively, he's just one of many threats for Villanova. Quarterback Chris Whitney and running backs Aaron Ball and Angelo Babbaro also return. All three are seniors and multi-year starters. Szczur, Ball and Babbaro combined for 3,036 yards and 28 touchdowns last year, and that number should continue as most of the offensive line returns.

In the August 23rd FCS coaches poll, Villanova received 22 first-place votes. Montana and Appalachian State received two and four votes, respectively. It's the Wildcats' championship to lose. At least, that's how the rest of the FCS coaches feel.

Look for the 'Cats to give the Owls another scare. I see an exact repeat from last year: Villanova 27, Temple 24.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Week 1 bets

My slate starts clean, at 0-0-0 for +0.00 units for the 2010 season. I have a fairly unique (I think) strategy that has worked well in the past for me. It may be unusual, but it's my thread, so I get to decide what to bet on.

Here's what I'm on for Week 1. It's loaded up way more than I had originally planned to, but when you see an edge, you'd better take it.

All of my plays for Week 1 are 4- or 5-team parlays. Four of the same team, over and over, parlayed with spreads or moneylines that I like. USC, Colorado, Ohio State and Georgia help bring down the juice for all of my lines so that instead of needing to hit ~53% all season, I only need to hit ~40% and I'll still turn a healthy profit.

However, if any of those four lose, I lose all of my bets this week.
  1. Nebraska -34.5 (-170) + USC -1400 ML + Colorado -455 ML + Ohio State -8500 ML + Georgia -6000 ML -- 2u to win 2.27u
  2. Northwestern -215 ML + those four -- 2u to win 1.94u
  3. Navy -250 ML + those four -- 2u to win 1.76u
  4. Ohio State -27.5 (-130) + USC ML, Colorado ML, Georgia ML -- 1.7u to win 2.3u
  5. Army -355 ML + those four -- 1.5u to win 1.09u
  6. Western Michigan +23 + those four -- 1.2u to win 1.57u
  7. Missouri -465 ML + those four -- 1.2u to win .76u
  8. Arizona -13.5 (-150) + those four -- 1u to win 1.24u
  9. Florida -34.5 (-120) + those four -- 1u to win 1.47u
  10. Washington State +15.5 + those four -- 1u to win 1.57u
  11. Washington +127 ML + those four -- .8u to win 1.64u
  12. Virginia Tech +113 ML + those four -- .8u to win 1.49u
  13. USC/Hawaii UNDER 54 + Colorado ML, Georgia ML, Ohio State ML -- .8u to win 1.12u
  14. Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 45.5 + those four -- .7u to win 1.1u
  15. Kansas State/UCLA UNDER 45 + those four -- .7u to win 1.1u
  16. LSU -165 ML + those four -- .5u to win .58u
  17. Minnesota -143 ML + those four -- .5u to win .67u
  18. Syracuse/Akron UNDER 42.5 (-120) + those four -- .5u to win .73u
  19. Baylor -38.5 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
  20. South Carolina State +30 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
  21. Jacksonville State +27 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
  22. California -28.5 (-120) + those four -- .4u to win .59u
After the games finish this week, I'll tally up my results. If any of those four teams lose, it'll be pretty easy. I'll have a 0-22, -21.5 unit week. Yikes!

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Oklahoma underrated at No. 7?

It's difficult to imagine Oklahoma ever really flying under the radar. A perennial top-10 team, the Sooners had a rare disappointing season last year.

Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Sam Bradford was returning for his senior season, and one of his favorite targets, tight end Jermaine Gresham was back. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, one of the nation's most dominant linemen, returned as well.

All in all, a BCS bowl game was well within reason, and things were looking great in Norman.

Then, the injury bug struck: Bradford injured his shoulder and played in just three games, and Gresham missed the entire season due to injury. Williams was forced to play all over the place as his fellow linemen went down with injuries throughout the season.

It was the perfect storm, losing starters for 42 total games and suffering three close losses, and it won't happen again, barring freak accidents.

This year, Oklahoma returns nine offensive starters, including now-seasoned quarterback Landry Jones, one of the nation's top receivers in Ryan Broyles and fifth-year senior running back DeMarco Murray, as well as five defensive starters. Even with last year's lousy results, the Sooners outgained their opponents by 133 yards per game.

With its first test in Week 2 against Florida State, we'll get an early look at how strong the Sooners will be. Below is Oklahoma's schedule.

But first, here's an on-the-record bet: Oklahoma to win the National Championship +1000, 1.5 units to win 15 units.

Date Opponent
Sept. 4 Utah State
Sept. 11 Florida State
Sept. 18 Air Force
Sept. 25 at Cincinnati
Oct. 2 vs. Texas (Dallas, Texas)
Oct. 16 Iowa State
Oct. 23 at Missouri
Oct. 30 Colorado
Nov. 6 at Texas A&M
Nov. 13 Texas Tech
Nov. 20 at Baylor
Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State