Tuesday, September 21, 2010

FCS narrowing the gap

After No. 20 Michigan narrowly escaped FCS Massachusetts last Saturday, it became just another piece of evidence that the once-cupcake Division I-AA has significantly narrowed the gap to its Football Bowl Division "superiors".

Just a few years ago, Appalachian State shocked the country when it beat Michigan in The Big House.

The USA Today headline read: "Unfathomable becomes a reality for Appalachian State". Today, it might read, "Just another FCS win over FBS".

This year, Gardner-Webb beat Akron, Liberty beat Ball State and South Dakota beat Minnesota. Villanova nearly joined that list but fell just short of an upset to Temple. But all of the FCS wins aren't coming from beating up on lowly I-AA teams.

North Dakota State beat Kansas 6-3 in Jayhawks coach Turner Gill's first game in Lawrence, Kansas. Jacksonville State topped Ole Miss in double overtime in a 49-48 shootout.

But the most impressive win of all was James Madison over No. 13 Virginia Tech, 21-16.

FCS teams are at a clear disadvantage, but don't seem to be complaining. Despite a limit of 63 scholarships (versus FBS' 85), it hasn't slowed down the mid-majors.

It forces teams to play with less depth. And, the longer the game goes on, the less likely it is to pull off an upset. Additionally, home-and-homes are nearly unheard of: FCS teams almost exclusively have to play on the road, making their wins even more impressive.

Football mid-majors are hoping to go the way of the basketball mid-majors: teams that are not to be taken lightly, not to be considered cupcakes and not to be overlooked.

Monday, September 20, 2010

The best QB in college ball

Heading into the season, some NFL analysts projected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck as a top five pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Through three weeks, Luck has shown he's clearly one of the best in the college game, and may be the consensus No. 1 pick by April.

He was nearly perfect in the Cardinal's season opening 52-17 rout of FCS Sacramento State, finishing 17-for-23 for 316 yards and four touchdowns.

In Week 2, he led Stanford to a 35-0 win over UCLA, completing just 45.8 percent of his passes, but still maintaining a high quarterback rating with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

But on Saturday, Luck stepped his game up in a big way. In a game some thought would be close, Luck and the Cardinal smashed visiting Wake Forest 68-24. Luck again finished 17-for-23, tallying 207 yards and four passing touchdowns.

He also scampered 52 yards for a cross-field touchdown for good measure, finishing the day with three carries for 69 yards.

His quarterback rating stands at 192.3, good for fourth in the nation. He's second in the country in passing touchdowns, and is completing 64.3 percent of his passes. Only seven other passers have thrown as many attempts (70) without throwing one interception.

And at no time has he looked incapable of leading a team at the next level, unlike Washington quarterback and projected first-rounder Jake Locker. Locker finished 4-for-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a blowout home loss to Nebraska.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Week 3 bets

A relatively quiet this week after the first two. Last week, we finished 8-7-0 for -2.96 units, bringing our year to date total to 19-18-0 for +0.10 units. Not good enough. Let's get to this week.

A slightly different strategy this week. I'm parlaying all of my bets with Penn State, Alabama and Stanford's moneylines, and adding West Virginia's moneyline to some of those bets. It'll be clear in a minute.
  1. Utah -1700 ML + Penn State -1600 ML + Alabama -1900 ML + Stanford -800 ML -- 4.52u to win 1.5u
  2. Purdue -670 ML + those three -- 3.36u to win 1.5u
  3. Indiana -550 ML + those three -- 2.05u to win 1u
  4. Wisconsin -500 ML + those three -- 1.96u to win 1u
  5. Navy -145 ML + those three + West Virginia -380 ML -- 1.78u to win 3u
  6. California -2.5 + those four -- 1.48u to win 3u
  7. USC -11.5 + those four -- 1.48u to win 3u
  8. Hawaii +13 + those four -- 1.48u to win 3u
Total risk: 19 units to win 17 units.

Saturday morning edit: Adding a few more reduced juice straight plays and a teaser, below.
  1. West Virginia-Maryland OVER 43.5 -- 2.1u to win 2u
  2. Utah State +3.5 -- 1.58u to win 1.5u
  3. Notre Dame +3.5 -- 1.12u to win 1u
  4. Temple +6 -- 1.05u to win 1u
  5. LSU -1.5 / Iowa +7.5 -- 1u to win 1u
Additional 6.85 units risked to win 6.5 units. I love reduced juice.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

WVU's Hogan suspended indefinitely

West Virginia cornerback Brandon Hogan, considered one of the team's top NFL talents, has been suspended indefinitely from the team following a DUI arrest early Sunday morning.

It's the latest in a long line of incidents involving Hogan. According to ESPN.com's Big East reporter Brian Bennett, "Hogan has also been in and out of Stewart's doghouse and spent much of this spring running stairs instead of practicing for being out of shape, skipping classes and receiving a citation for disorderly conduct and public urination."

Hogan will miss Saturday's game against Maryland, and the Mountaineers will certainly miss him for much longer than that.

CBS Sports rated Hogan a mid-second round pick in its 2011 NFL mock draft, ranking him the seventh-best cornerback prospect.

Walter Football ranked him as the No. 11 cornerback in the nation.

The senior had become a leader on the West Virginia squad, and was named to the Jim Thorpe Award watch list in the preseason, awarded after the season to the top defensive back.

As a junior, Hogan, Sports Illustrated named Hogan honorable mention All-American. He was an All-Conference first-team selection, starting every game and finishing the season with 74 tackles. He led the team in pass breakups (11) and was one of the Big East's best pass defenders.

Without him, head coach Bill Stewart will have to find his replacement. Stewart named three possibilities: senior Brantwon Bowser, sophomore Pat Miller or redshirt freshman Broderick Jenkins.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Who misses their QB the most?

It took just two games for some teams to start showing how much they missed last year's starting quarterback.

A new starting quarterback is one of the toughest adjustments a team must make. It's incredibly important to groom a future quarterback and give him snaps in blowout situations to gain him in-game experience.

So, who's struggling so far?

Florida without Tim Tebow (pictured) -- The Gators are 2-0 and have outscored opponents 72-26 through eight quarters. That's hardly struggling for some, but for Florida, Tebow made all the difference. New quarterback John Brantley and the Gators fumbled eight times in the season opener against Miami (OH), and turned it on late for a seemingly comfortable win. Last week, Brantley completed just 58 percent of his passes for 172 yards in a win over South Florida.

Texas without Colt McCoy -- Another 2-0 team, the Longhorns have struggled more than their record indicates. New quarterback Garrett Gilbert got his first snaps last year in the National Championship when McCoy went down with an injury, but this year is his first as a starter. Through two games against Rice and Wyoming, Gilbert has just one touchdown pass, as the Longhorns have had to rely heavily on their running game. A 34-17 win over Rice may not have been if it wasn't for running back Tre' Newton's outstanding three-touchdown performance.

Cincinnati without Tony Pike -- Last year, there didn't seem to be much of a dropoff between Pike, the starter, and Zach Collaros, the backup. Pike is now in the NFL and it's the Collaros show. In his first real test this year, Collaros couldn't get the Bearcats clicking in a 28-14 road loss to Fresno State. A Week 2 win over FCS Indiana State wasn't enough to shake the feeling that the Week 1 outcome could have been differently with Pike at the helm.

Others receiving consideration: Penn State's Daryll Clark, Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, Kansas' Todd Reesing, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford.