Why Iowa will beat Michigan

Heading into Ann Arbor this weekend, the 4-1 Iowa Hawkeyes are 3.5-point favorites over Michigan (5-1).

And, despite being playing in front of one of the most hostile environments in all of college football, the Hawkeyes will win (and cover the spread).

While Michigan hangs its hopes on the shoulders of Heisman hopeful quarterback Denard Robinson, who has carried the ball 119 times for 991 yards and nine touchdowns this season, it's important to consider the run defenses he's faced in victories this season:

• Bowling Green, which has the 118th-ranked run defense.
• Indiana, which has the 98th-ranked run defense.
• Connecticut, which has the 61st-ranked run defense.
• Notre Dame, which has the 53rd-ranked run defense.

And Michigan's defense isn't just average. It's bad. It's allowed 34 points in half its games this season, ranks 55th in run defense and has the 119th-ranked pass defense.

Now, Robinson faces his toughest test yet: Iowa's 2nd-ranked run defense. And, coming off a bye week, you can bet that the Hawkeyes have studied film of the Wolverines' loss to Michigan State over and over. Iowa has outscored opponents 35 to 4 in their wins this season, and have allowed just four touchdowns all year.

Iowa senior quarterback Ricky Stanzi has been stellar this year, and should have a field day with the Wolverines' pass defense. He's averaging nearly 250 yards per game and has thrown 10 touchdowns to two interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have a Robinson of their own: running back Adam Robinson is averaging 96 yards per game rushing on 4.9 yards per carry, and has six touchdowns in five games.

If (and when) Iowa shuts down Michigan's most viable scoring option in Denard Robinson, the Hawkeyes will leave with a comfortable win and head back home 5-1.