All plays this week will be parlayed with Oregon, Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon State moneylines. You may have noticed that I stopped blogging this week. It's just become too time-consuming with work, and the payoff (read: web traffic) hasn't been worth continuing it this season.
That said, let's look at this week. We were 3-1 last week for +12.15 units, bringing us to 50-47 for the year and +16.16 units. Time to make some money this weekend.
1. NC State -1000 ML + Oregon -1000 ML + Ohio State -900 ML + Illinois -1400 ML + Oregon State -1900 ML -- 9.69u to win 5u
2. Oklahoma -600 ML + those four -- 8.22u to win 5u
3. Alabama -500 ML + those four -- 7.64u to win 5u
4. Kentucky -600 ML + those four -- 4.11u to win 2.5u
5. Maryland -135 ML + those four -- 2.55u to win 5u
Total risk: 32.21u to win 22.5u
Friday, November 12, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
We need a college playoff
As we approach the 11th week of the college football season, 
the pool of unbeaten teams has been whittled down to four: Oregon, Auburn, TCU and Boise State.
This year is the best argument for why there should be a college football playoff implemented ASAP.
The topic has been argued by both parties to no end. It's constantly mentioned by SportsCenter, Around the Horn, Pardon the Interruption and Mike and Mike. So instead of talking about the NCAA's fascination with dollar bills, let's look at how the rest of the season will play out.
No. 1 Oregon has been untouchable en route to a 9-0 record. The Ducks have 58 offensive
touchdowns and have allowed just 18, and are outgaining opponents 570 yards to 330 yards per game. Oregon has three games remaining, but just one against a ranked opponent: a home game against No. 13 Arizona. The Ducks beat up on No. 9 Stanford, 52-31 earlier in the season, and Stanford beat Arizona by 25 on Saturday. It's safe to say the Ducks will end up 12-0.
At No. 2 in the BCS rankings, Auburn is the team with the diciest remaining schedule. The Tigers are 10-0 and have just two regular season games remaining on its schedule: a home game against Georgia (5-5) and a road game at No. 11 Alabama, once considered the frontrunner for this year's championship. Auburn has to win that game, for which it might be an underdog,
and then win the SEC Championship Game. That means beating either No. 24 Florida or No. 22 South Carolina. Not as difficult as beating Alabama, but not a cakewalk, either.
No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Boise State have beaten everything put in front of them. Last year, the two were matched against each other in the Fiesta Bowl. A 13-0 Boise State team beat a 12-0 TCU team 17-10, an exciting matchup, but disappointing to see neither given the opportunity to beat a BCS conference team and show America that they could hang with the big boys.
It was a lose-lose situation for both teams in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. The winner should have won, after all, it wasn't even playing a BCS conference team. And the loser? How could it have been a championship-caliber team if it couldn't even beat a non-automatic qualifier?
Boise State hears the same argument every year: a poor strength of schedule makes it
impossible to leapfrog bigger teams that play in better conferences. But the Broncos beat No. 10 Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. and beat No. 24 Oregon State in Week 3, and have run the table in its Western Athletic Conference schedule so far. But a poor in-conference strength of schedule puts the Broncos firmly behind TCU.
TCU has the best argument for getting in over Auburn. The Horned Frogs are 10-0 with a far more impressive margin of victory in most games, and, like Boise State, beat No. 24 Oregon State, 30-21. TCU also beat Baylor, Air Force and last week, No. 6 Utah, 47-7.
It's not either team's fault, but it is hard to argue that they should get put in over a team that goes undefeated in the SEC or Pac-10.
Coincidentally, the last time the BCS had this much controversy was in 2004, when Auburn, USC and Oklahoma all finished 12-0 for the regular season. Auburn was the one school left out of the National Championship, leaving people scratching their heads wondering why there wasn't a better way to settle the debate.
the pool of unbeaten teams has been whittled down to four: Oregon, Auburn, TCU and Boise State.This year is the best argument for why there should be a college football playoff implemented ASAP.
The topic has been argued by both parties to no end. It's constantly mentioned by SportsCenter, Around the Horn, Pardon the Interruption and Mike and Mike. So instead of talking about the NCAA's fascination with dollar bills, let's look at how the rest of the season will play out.
No. 1 Oregon has been untouchable en route to a 9-0 record. The Ducks have 58 offensive
touchdowns and have allowed just 18, and are outgaining opponents 570 yards to 330 yards per game. Oregon has three games remaining, but just one against a ranked opponent: a home game against No. 13 Arizona. The Ducks beat up on No. 9 Stanford, 52-31 earlier in the season, and Stanford beat Arizona by 25 on Saturday. It's safe to say the Ducks will end up 12-0.At No. 2 in the BCS rankings, Auburn is the team with the diciest remaining schedule. The Tigers are 10-0 and have just two regular season games remaining on its schedule: a home game against Georgia (5-5) and a road game at No. 11 Alabama, once considered the frontrunner for this year's championship. Auburn has to win that game, for which it might be an underdog,
and then win the SEC Championship Game. That means beating either No. 24 Florida or No. 22 South Carolina. Not as difficult as beating Alabama, but not a cakewalk, either.No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Boise State have beaten everything put in front of them. Last year, the two were matched against each other in the Fiesta Bowl. A 13-0 Boise State team beat a 12-0 TCU team 17-10, an exciting matchup, but disappointing to see neither given the opportunity to beat a BCS conference team and show America that they could hang with the big boys.
It was a lose-lose situation for both teams in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. The winner should have won, after all, it wasn't even playing a BCS conference team. And the loser? How could it have been a championship-caliber team if it couldn't even beat a non-automatic qualifier?
Boise State hears the same argument every year: a poor strength of schedule makes it
impossible to leapfrog bigger teams that play in better conferences. But the Broncos beat No. 10 Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. and beat No. 24 Oregon State in Week 3, and have run the table in its Western Athletic Conference schedule so far. But a poor in-conference strength of schedule puts the Broncos firmly behind TCU.TCU has the best argument for getting in over Auburn. The Horned Frogs are 10-0 with a far more impressive margin of victory in most games, and, like Boise State, beat No. 24 Oregon State, 30-21. TCU also beat Baylor, Air Force and last week, No. 6 Utah, 47-7.
It's not either team's fault, but it is hard to argue that they should get put in over a team that goes undefeated in the SEC or Pac-10.
Coincidentally, the last time the BCS had this much controversy was in 2004, when Auburn, USC and Oklahoma all finished 12-0 for the regular season. Auburn was the one school left out of the National Championship, leaving people scratching their heads wondering why there wasn't a better way to settle the debate.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Week 10 bets
The last two weeks has been kind of a bummer. We were up nearly 32 units after Week 7, but are down 28 units in the last two weeks. Thanks, West Virginia and Miami (FL). Those two games cost me a boatload. West Virginia didn't deserve to win, despite it being its homecoming game, but Miami should have beaten Virginia in Charlottesville, except starting quarterback Jacory Harris got a concussion in the second quarter. It was all downhill after that.
So we're now 47-46-0, +4.01 units. Not where I wanted to be right now. But I do feel better about this week's bets than I have about the past two weeks, so that's a good sign.
Because I've got a little more time than usual, I'll break down why I like these games, too.
Iowa -800 ML at Indiana -- The Hoosiers are an incredibly one-dimensional team. With no running game, Indiana is forced to pass it to move the ball. Iowa is coming off a blowout win over Michigan State in which the Hawkeyes allowed just 198 yards in the air. Meanwhile, Indiana's pass and rush defenses are worse than Iowa's pass and rush offenses, which should create plenty of scoring opportunities for the Hawkeyes. Lastly, Iowa's only injuries are to two linebackers -- one is out, the other is questionable. Indiana is considerably more banged up, with a tight end, safety and kicker out, and a cornerback (Adrian Burks) questionable. Even starting quarterback Ben Chappell is banged up.
Wisconsin -1200 ML at Purdue -- Purdue's pass offense is abysmal, ranking 115th out of 120 teams. Its running game is considerably better, but ranks 40th in the country -- Wisconsin's run defense is 22nd. The Badgers are coming off a bye week, and have just one injury to a starter. But Purdue is on its third-string quarterback, and has a starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver out for Saturday. Starting cornerback Mike Eargle is questionable for Purdue, too.
Michigan State -2150 ML vs. Minnesota -- Minnesota, like the rest of the teams in my plays, cannot defend the pass or the run, and therefore a Michigan State team frustrated with an embarrassing loss last week, will take it out on the Gophers. Minnesota's banged up, with two starting offensive linemen and a fullback likely out, while Michigan State is healthy as can be.
Florida -550 ML at Vanderbilt -- Of all the games, this is the one that worries me slightly. And it should, as it's the lowest moneyline of all my plays. But here's the reasoning, either way. Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball on Florida's defense. That's not necessarily because Florida has a suffocating defense, but Vandy's offense just isn't very good. Florida got a few of its playmakers back in last week's win over Georgia, including Jeffery Demps, who instantly gives the Gators a playmaker who Vanderbilt can't guard.
Boise State -1300 ML vs. Hawaii -- Boise is coming off 11 days of rest, while Hawaii is traveling to a different time zone on six days rest. While Boise is nicked up here and there, its defense is tenacious, ranking second in run defense and eighth in pass defense. Hawaii has no running game, but has the nation's best passing offense. The Broncos should put up significant points against Hawaii's weaker defense, and Hawaii will find the end zone too, just not nearly as frequently.
Here's the bets:
Ohio -590 ML + Wisconsin -1200 ML + Michigan State -2400 ML + Boise State -1300 ML in all four parlays
Virginia Tech -475 ML + those four -- 10u to win 7.2u
Iowa -850 ML + those four -- 10u to win 5.89u
Maryland +260 ML + those four -- 1.94u to win 8u
Florida -550 ML + those four -- 1.47u to win 1u
Total risk: 23.41u to win 22.09u
So we're now 47-46-0, +4.01 units. Not where I wanted to be right now. But I do feel better about this week's bets than I have about the past two weeks, so that's a good sign.
Because I've got a little more time than usual, I'll break down why I like these games, too.
Iowa -800 ML at Indiana -- The Hoosiers are an incredibly one-dimensional team. With no running game, Indiana is forced to pass it to move the ball. Iowa is coming off a blowout win over Michigan State in which the Hawkeyes allowed just 198 yards in the air. Meanwhile, Indiana's pass and rush defenses are worse than Iowa's pass and rush offenses, which should create plenty of scoring opportunities for the Hawkeyes. Lastly, Iowa's only injuries are to two linebackers -- one is out, the other is questionable. Indiana is considerably more banged up, with a tight end, safety and kicker out, and a cornerback (Adrian Burks) questionable. Even starting quarterback Ben Chappell is banged up.
Wisconsin -1200 ML at Purdue -- Purdue's pass offense is abysmal, ranking 115th out of 120 teams. Its running game is considerably better, but ranks 40th in the country -- Wisconsin's run defense is 22nd. The Badgers are coming off a bye week, and have just one injury to a starter. But Purdue is on its third-string quarterback, and has a starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver out for Saturday. Starting cornerback Mike Eargle is questionable for Purdue, too.
Michigan State -2150 ML vs. Minnesota -- Minnesota, like the rest of the teams in my plays, cannot defend the pass or the run, and therefore a Michigan State team frustrated with an embarrassing loss last week, will take it out on the Gophers. Minnesota's banged up, with two starting offensive linemen and a fullback likely out, while Michigan State is healthy as can be.
Florida -550 ML at Vanderbilt -- Of all the games, this is the one that worries me slightly. And it should, as it's the lowest moneyline of all my plays. But here's the reasoning, either way. Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball on Florida's defense. That's not necessarily because Florida has a suffocating defense, but Vandy's offense just isn't very good. Florida got a few of its playmakers back in last week's win over Georgia, including Jeffery Demps, who instantly gives the Gators a playmaker who Vanderbilt can't guard.
Boise State -1300 ML vs. Hawaii -- Boise is coming off 11 days of rest, while Hawaii is traveling to a different time zone on six days rest. While Boise is nicked up here and there, its defense is tenacious, ranking second in run defense and eighth in pass defense. Hawaii has no running game, but has the nation's best passing offense. The Broncos should put up significant points against Hawaii's weaker defense, and Hawaii will find the end zone too, just not nearly as frequently.
Here's the bets:
Ohio -590 ML + Wisconsin -1200 ML + Michigan State -2400 ML + Boise State -1300 ML in all four parlays
Virginia Tech -475 ML + those four -- 10u to win 7.2u
Iowa -850 ML + those four -- 10u to win 5.89u
Maryland +260 ML + those four -- 1.94u to win 8u
Florida -550 ML + those four -- 1.47u to win 1u
Total risk: 23.41u to win 22.09u
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Locker out with broken rib
If there's one player who has done a disservice to himself by returning to college football for another year, it's Washington quarterback Jake Locker.
It's great to see players make the decision to stay in school rather than leaving for the big bucks, but it can be a costly one. NFL teams often draft on potential, and the longer scouts have to watch a player, the less he'll be drafted on potential, and the more he'll be drafted on results.
Locker was thought of as the consensus No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft, but opted to come back to school for a year.
After a freshman season when Locker ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns, he was injured as a sophomore and missed most of the season. As a junior, he rebounded from his injury and put together a solid campaign, relying more on his arm than on his legs. He finished with 21 passing touchdowns to 11 interceptions, and ran for nearly 400 yards and seven touchdowns.
This year, his numbers are on pace to be about the same, but he's choked in big games. In an early season home loss to Nebraska, he was just 4-for-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. And while he torched Oregon State for five touchdowns and one interception, he had another dreadful performance against another fantastic offense in last week's loss to Stanford.
Locker was 7-for-14 for 64 yards and two interceptions against the Cornhuskers, leaving scouts wondering whether he's ready to take on NFL defenses. Against Stanford, he suffered a broken rib and is out for this weekend's game against Oregon, and possibly for longer than that.
He's still projected as a first round quarterback by ESPN scouts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, but coming back may have cost him millions.
It's great to see players make the decision to stay in school rather than leaving for the big bucks, but it can be a costly one. NFL teams often draft on potential, and the longer scouts have to watch a player, the less he'll be drafted on potential, and the more he'll be drafted on results.
Locker was thought of as the consensus No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft, but opted to come back to school for a year.
After a freshman season when Locker ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns, he was injured as a sophomore and missed most of the season. As a junior, he rebounded from his injury and put together a solid campaign, relying more on his arm than on his legs. He finished with 21 passing touchdowns to 11 interceptions, and ran for nearly 400 yards and seven touchdowns.
This year, his numbers are on pace to be about the same, but he's choked in big games. In an early season home loss to Nebraska, he was just 4-for-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. And while he torched Oregon State for five touchdowns and one interception, he had another dreadful performance against another fantastic offense in last week's loss to Stanford.
Locker was 7-for-14 for 64 yards and two interceptions against the Cornhuskers, leaving scouts wondering whether he's ready to take on NFL defenses. Against Stanford, he suffered a broken rib and is out for this weekend's game against Oregon, and possibly for longer than that.
He's still projected as a first round quarterback by ESPN scouts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, but coming back may have cost him millions.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Week 9 game balls
Three game balls to hand out to offensive players across the country for their outstanding Week 9 performances.Nebraska running back Roy Helu -- Helu (pictured) ran for a school-record 307 yards on 28 carries, good for an average of 11 yards per carry, in a 31-17 win over then-undefeated Missouri. Helu found the end zone three times, from 66 yards, 73 yards and 53 yards out, single-handedly outscoring the Tigers in the win.
Oregon running back LaMichael James -- James had a similar performance, running 36 times for 239 yards and three touchdowns in a 53-32 win at Southern Cal. Many thought USC was Oregon's best chance to be upset this year, but the Ducks' high-octane offense pulled through. Now, Oregon seems to have a straight shot at a National Championship, barring any hiccups.
Joint game ball to: Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones and wide receiver Ryan Broyles -- the duo hooked up nine times for 208 yards and three touchdowns in a 43-10 win over Colorado. Though the Buffaloes weren't much of a test, the Sooners have been criticized for playing down to their opponents in the past. A 33-point win over a fellow Big 12 team, and doing so with phenomenal success in the air, gives Jones and Broyles a reason to celebrate.
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